Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

BANKING SYNERGIES: A HYPOTHETICAL MERGER OF TWO BRAZILIAN PUBLIC BANKS

The research focuses on bank mergers, exploring how benefits not traditionally considered can arise when applying the Discounted Cash Flow method in financial institutions. Data from sources such as the Central Bank (Bacen), IF.Data, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econômica Federal, Ipeadata, B3 and Infomoney were used. The data were analyzed using the Discounted Dividend Model and Simple Financial Modeling. We projected the Income Statement and Balance Sheet of the banks, adjusted by the Bacen target inflation rate. We calculated the dividends projected for the next ten years, and determined the “Equity Value” of the banks individually and combined, a simulation that considered three scenarios: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic. The results highlighted critical variables, such as individual and combined growth, Return on Equity and Reinvestment Rate, showing that a merger can generate value in all scenarios analyzed.

Keywords:
Bank Mergers; Discounted Dividend Model; Financial Modeling; Discounted Cash Flow; Financial Institutions


Escola de Administração da UFRGS Escola de Administração da UFRGS, Rua Washington Luis, 855 - 2° Andar, 90010-460 Porto Alegre/RS - Brasil, Fone: (55 51) 3308-3823, Fax: (55 51) 3308 3991 - Porto Alegre - RS - Brazil
E-mail: read@ea.ufrgs.br