Climate seasonality and lower respiratory tract diseases: a predictive model for pediatric hospitalizations

Estacionalidad climática y enfermedades de las vías respiratorias bajas: utilización de modelo predictor de hospitalizaciones pediátricas

ABSTRACT

Objectives:

to analyze the climate seasonality of respiratory diseases in children aged 0-9 years and present a model to predict hospital admissions for 2021 to 2022.

Methods:

verify, in a temporal manner, the correlation of admissions for pneumonia, bronchitis/bronchiolitis, and asthma with meteorological variables, aiming to demonstrate seasonality with the adjustment of temporal series models.

Results:

there was a seasonal effect in the number of registered cases for all diseases, with the highest incidence of registrations in the months of autumn and winter.

Conclusions:

it was possible to observe a tendency towards a decrease in the registration of pneumonia cases; In cases of admissions due to bronchitis and bronchiolitis, there was a slight tendency towards an increase; and, in occurrence rates of asthma, there was no variation in the number of cases.

Descriptors:
Climatic Seasonality; Lower Airway Diseases; Hospitalizations; Statistical Bias; Children