FISCAL POLICY IN PERSPECTIVE: THE 16-YEAR CYCLE (1999-2014)

Gobetti, Sérgio Wulff; Orair, Rodrigo Octávio

doi:10.1590/198055271934

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Revista de Economia Contemporânea

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Artigos • Rev. econ. contemp. 19 (3) • Sep-Dec 2015 • https://doi.org/10.1590/198055271934 copy

FISCAL POLICY IN PERSPECTIVE: THE 16-YEAR CYCLE (1999-2014)

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

This paper contributes to the debate over fiscal regime changes in Brazil, better characterizing the cycle of contraction and expansion of fiscal policy between 1999 and 2014.Firstly, the paper presents an analysis based on detailed statistics about primary budget balance that incorporate regional level of government in order to provide a better understanding of the recent expansionary fiscal policy in Brazil (2010-2014). It identifies not only the main determinants in terms of revenues and expenditures but also those related to local and state governments. Additionally, several indicators were used to better characterize that fiscal expansion compared to previous periods and, finally, the paper analyzes the sustainability of public spending trajectory under different scenarios.

Keywords:
fiscal expansion; structural balance; fiscal impulse

Ano	Governo central	Governos regionais	Empresas estatais	Total
1996	0,37	-0,49	0,03	-0,09
1997	-0,06	-0,67	-0,13	-0,87
1998	0,59	-0,17	-0,41	0,01
1999	2,08	0,19	0,57	2,85
2000	1,57	0,50	1,10	3,17
2001	1,67	0,80	0,71	3,18
2002	2,14	0,71	0,33	3,19
2003	2,25	0,80	0,18	3,23
2004	2,67	0,89	1,12	3,69
2005	2,57	0,98	0,19	3,74
2006	2,13	0,82	0,20	3,15
2007	2,19	1,10	-0,05	3,24
2008	2,75	0,98	0,05	3,79
2009	1,28	0,63	0,04	1,95
2010	1,21	0,53	0,06	1,80
2011	2,13	0,75	0,06	2,94
2012	1,56	0,46	-0,06	1,96
2013	1,46	0,32	-0,01	1,77
2014	-0,37	-0,14	-0,08	-0,59

Despesas	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Subsídios ao BNDES*	299	223	624	1,831	7,946	10,538	12,343	10,629	21,267
Efeito ordens bancárias**	-395	-1,410	422	3,014	4,524	1,190	4,818	3,665	-3,740
Efeito restos a pagar***	1,343	113	0	-2,185	2,793	-550	2,183	7,332	4,841
Total	-96	-1,187	1,047	2,660	15,263	11,178	19,344	21,626	22,369

Benefícios	1998	2002	2006	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Previdenciários (INSS)	5,15	5,79	6,87	6,56	6,43	6,72	6,92	7,14
Assistenciais (LOAS-RMV)	0,27	0,34	0,48	0,57	0,57	0,62	0,65	0,70
Abono salarial e Seguro-desemprego	0,44	0,48	0,61	0,77	0,78	0,82	0,86	0,98
Bolsa Família/Escola	0,00	0,13	0,32	0,35	0,38	0,45	0,47	0,47
Total	5,86	6,74	8,28	8,24	8,16	8,61	8,89	9,29

Benefícios	Previdenciários	LOAS/RMV	Seguro-desemprego	Total
2004	20,506,649	2,629,196	5,008,168	28,144,013
2005	21,149,560	2,792,638	5,582,395	29,524,593
2006	21,644,885	2,940,141	6,058,355	30,643,381
2007	22,066,263	3,096,566	6,525,294	31,688,123
2008	22,776,205	3,311,827	7,215,675	33,303,707
2009	23,534,497	3,504,080	7,911,598	34,950,175
2010	24,426,882	3,703,505	8,117,808	36,248,195
2011	25,176,323	3,863,503	8,515,204	37,555,030
2012	26,032,855	3,999,462	8,779,654	38,811,971
2013	27,009,011	4,165,956	9,114,189	40,289,156
2014	27,818,973	4,310,448	9,060,184	41,189,605
Taxa Média de Crescimento	3,1	5,0	6,1	3,9

Instituto de Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Avenida Pasteur, 250 sala 114, Palácio Universitário, Instituto de Economia, 22290-240 Rio de Janeiro - RJ Brasil, Tel.: 55 21 3938-5242 - Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil
E-mail: rec@ie.ufrj.br

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[1] Correspondência para: Sérgio Wulff Gobetti Contato: swgobetti@gmail.com