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International business cycles: a comparative study between Brazil and Espírito Santo

This work aims to document the main empirical regularities (stylized facts) over business-cycle frequencies related to Brazil and the state of Espírito Santo's international trade. In doing so, we build an extensive dataset related to exports and imports' values covering a 10-year horizon (2002-2011). Results obtained demonstrate that international trade variables are more volatile than output measures and present procyclical and lagging patterns over the business cycle. Additionally, trade balance measures display a countercyclical pattern, with state-level fluctuations being more volatile than country's fluctuations. On the other hands, there is no robust evidence related to an "S-curve" pattern, relating trade balance and the terms of trade. These results are important for providing a first set of moments related to the state and country's international trade over cyclical frequencies.

Business cycles; international trade; Espírito Santo


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E-mail: rec@ie.ufrj.br