AS EXPECTATIVAS DE INFLAÇÃO: UMA REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA DE LITERATURA E ANÁLISE BIBLIOMÉTRICA

Osorio-Barreto, Daniel; Mejía-Rubio, Pedro Pablo; Mora-Mora, José Ustorgio

Daniel Osorio-Barreto

Ph.D. candidate in Economic Sciences at Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Cali, Colombia) and Assistant Professor at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales (Manizales, Colombia). Manizales, Colombia

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0848-6394

Pedro Pablo Mejía-Rubio

Research Student at the Universidad Autónoma de Manizales. Manizales, Colombia.

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0508-5464

José Ustorgio Mora-Mora

Visiting Assistant Professor at Creighton University. Omaha, NE, USA.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5898-4482

Corresponding author: Daniel Osorio-Barreto E-mail: dosoriob@autonoma.edu.co

Search Equation	Database	Results	Total of Reviewed papers
“Inflation expectations” + “Latin America”	Scopus	3	4
	WoS	3
	Both	2
“Inflation expectations” + “Determinants”	Scopus	39	49
	WoS	32
	Both	22

*Region*	*Frequency*
USA	21
UK	10
Vietnam	5
Germany	4
India	4
South Africa	4
Brazil	3
Czech Republic	3
Poland	3
Pakistan	2
Chile	1

Document	Total Citations
Berk (1999BERK, J. M. Measuring inflation expectations: A survey data approach. Applied Economics, v. 31, n. 11, p. 1467-1480, 1999. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499323337. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499323337... )	54
Del Negro and Eusepi (2011DEL NEGRO, M.; EUSEPI, S. Fitting observed inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, v. 35, n. 12, p. 2105-2131, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.0... )	40
Carvalho and Minella (2012CARVALHO, F. A.; MINELLA, A. Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants. Journal of International Money and Finance, v. 31, n. 6, p. 1371-1391, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.... )	24
Wimanda, Turner, and Hall (2011WIMANDA, R. E.; TURNER, P. M.; HALL, M. J. Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia. Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 33, n. 3, p. 426-438, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.08.009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.0... )	21
Baur, Beckmann, and Czudaj (2016BAUR, D. G.; BECKMANN, J.; CZUDAJ, R. A melting pot - Gold price forecasts under model and parameter uncertainty. International Review of Financial Analysis, v. 48, p. 282-291, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.0... )	20
Kanas, Vasiliou, and Eriotis (2012KANAS, A.; VASILIOU, D.; ERIOTIS, N. Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, v. 22, n. 4, p. 990-1005, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.10.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.10... )	19
Cerisola and Gelos (2009CERISOLA, M.; GELOS, G. What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis. Applied Economics, v. 41, n. 10, p. 1215-1227, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601166892. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684060116689... )	19
Dokko et al. (1991DOKKO, Y. et al. Determinants of the rate of return for nonresidential real estate: inflation expectations and market adjustment lags. Real Estate Economics, v. 19, n. 1, p.52-69, 1991. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00540. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00540... )	17
Ueda (2010UEDA, K. Determinants of households’ inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, v. 24, n. 4, p. 503-518, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.0... )	15
Dua (2008DUA, P. Analysis of consumers’ perceptions of buying conditions for houses. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, v. 37, n. 4, p. 335-350, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9084-0. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9084-... )	15

*Journal*	*Publication number*	*H-Index*
Applied Economics	2	2
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance	2	1
International Economics and Economic Policy	2	2
International Finance	2	2
International Review of Financial Analysis	2	1
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking	2	2
Acta Oeconomica	1	0
Comparative Economic Research	1	1
Economia - Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association	1	0
Economica Chilena	1	0

Categories	Description	Documents
Inflation expectations	Contains the documents that study the inflation expectations and what affects it and the documents related to the formation of said expectations.	Dokko (1991DOKKO, Y. et al. Determinants of the rate of return for nonresidential real estate: inflation expectations and market adjustment lags. Real Estate Economics, v. 19, n. 1, p.52-69, 1991. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00540. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00540... ), Berk, J. M. (1999BERK, J. M. Measuring inflation expectations: A survey data approach. Applied Economics, v. 31, n. 11, p. 1467-1480, 1999. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499323337. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499323337... ),Dua (2008DUA, P. Analysis of consumers’ perceptions of buying conditions for houses. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, v. 37, n. 4, p. 335-350, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9084-0. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-007-9084-... ),Horváth (2008HORVÁTH, R. Undershooting of the inflation target in the Czech Republic: The role of inflation expectations. Finance a úvěr-Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, v. 58, p. 482-492, 2008. Available at: Available at: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1145_1145_6__horvath.pdf . Accessed on: 25 Apr. 2021. http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1145_... ),Proaño (2009PROAÑO, C. R. (De-)Stabilizing two-country macroeconomic interactions in an estimated model of the US and the Euro Area. International Economy and Economic Policy, v. 6, p. 421-443, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-009-0145-0. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-009-0145-... ),Ueda (2010UEDA, K. Determinants of households’ inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, v. 24, n. 4, p. 503-518, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.0... ),Coffinet and Frappa (2010COFFINET, J.; FRAPPA, S. Determinants of the inflation compensation curve in the euro area. The European Journal of Finance, v. 16, n. 8, p. 769-783, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2010.481460. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2010.48... ),Del Negro and Eusepi (2011DEL NEGRO, M.; EUSEPI, S. Fitting observed inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, v. 35, n. 12, p. 2105-2131, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.0... ),Posen (2011POSEN, A. The soft tyranny of inflation expectations. International Finance , v. 14, n. 3, p. 541-566, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2011.01287.x. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2011... ),Wimanda, Turner, and Hall (2011WIMANDA, R. E.; TURNER, P. M.; HALL, M. J. Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia. Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 33, n. 3, p. 426-438, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.08.009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.0... ),Doh (2011DOH, T. The yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , v. 35, n. 8, p. 1229-1244, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.03.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.03.0... ),Yap and Allen (2011YAP, G.; ALLEN, D. Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, v. 81, n. 7, p. 1365-1374, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2010.05.005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2010.05... ),Kanas, Vasiliou, and Eriotis (2012KANAS, A.; VASILIOU, D.; ERIOTIS, N. Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, v. 22, n. 4, p. 990-1005, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.10.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.10... ),Abdullah and Kalim (2012ABDULLAH, M.; KALIM, R. Empirical analysis of food price inflation in Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal, v. 16, n.7, p.933-939, 2012. Available at: Available at: http://escholar.umt.edu.pk:8080/jspui/bitstream/123456789/492/3/Full%20View.pdf . Accessed on: 20 Mar. 2021. http://escholar.umt.edu.pk:8080/jspui/bi... ),Fuhrer (2012FUHRER, J. The role of expectations in inflation dynamics. International Journal of Central Banking, p. 137-165, 2012. Available at: Available at: https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q0a7.pdf . Accessed on: 30 Mar. 2021. https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q0a7.... ),Nair (2012NAIR, L. R. Policy disciplining effect of capital account openness in India. Transition Studies Review, v. 19, n. 1, p. 43-57, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0229-3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0229-... ),Hayo and Mazhar (2014HAYO, B.; MAZHAR, U. Monetary Policy committee transparency: Measurement, determinants, and economic effects. Open Economic Review, v. 25, p. 739-770, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-013-9296-2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-013-9296-... ),McAdam and Willman (2013MCADAM, P.; WILLMAN, A. Technology, utilization, and inflation: What drives the new Keynesian Phillips Curve? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , v. 45, n. 8, p. 1548-1579, 2013. Available at: Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/42920085 . Accessed on: 5 May 2021. https://www.jstor.org/stable/42920085... ),Baur, Beckmann, and Czudaj (2016BAUR, D. G.; BECKMANN, J.; CZUDAJ, R. A melting pot - Gold price forecasts under model and parameter uncertainty. International Review of Financial Analysis, v. 48, p. 282-291, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.0... ),Nampewo and Opolot (2016NAMPEWO, D.; OPOLOT, J. Financial innovations and money velocity in Uganda. African Development Review, v. 28, n. 4, p. 371-382, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12218. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12218... ),Białowolski (2016BIAŁOWOLSKI, P. The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations. Quality and Quantity, v. 50, p. 509-528, 2016. DOI: 10.1007/s11135-015-0161-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-015-0161-... ),Mackiewicz (2016MACKIEWICZ-ŁYZIAK, J. Central bank credibility: Determinants and measurement a cross-country study. Acta Oeconomica, v. 66, n. 1, p. 125-151, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2016.66.1.6. https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2016.66.1.6... ),Weber (2018WEBER, C. S. Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) - New evidence. International Economics and Economic Policy, v. 15, p. 21-67, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0365-z. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0365-... ),Armona, Fuster, and Zafar (2019ARMONA, L.; FUSTER, A.; ZAFAR, B. Home price expectations and behaviour: Evidence from a randomized information experiment. Review of Economic Studies, v. 86, n. 4, p. 1-40, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy038. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy038... ),Ganić (2018GANIĆ, M. An empirical analysis of factors affecting bank interest margins: Evidence from the southeast European Countries. Comparative Economic Research, v. 21, n. 2, p. 81-98, 2018. Available at: Available at: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=746485 . Accessed on: 30 Mar. 2021. https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-det... ),Stillwagon (2018STILLWAGON, J. R. TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from financial panic to breakeven inflation in an automated, nonlinear modeling framework. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 80, n. 2, p. 218-235, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12218. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12218... ),Pop and Roman (2018POP, R. E.; ROMAN, M. D. Learning dynamics and the rationality of inflation expectations in CEE countries. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, v. 52, n. 2, p. 21-36, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.1015... ),Bulut (2018BULUT, U. Inflation expectations in Turkey: Determinants and roles in missing inflation targets. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, v. 7, n. 3, p. 77-90, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0024. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0024... ),Madito and Odhiambo (2018MADITO, O.; ODHIAMBO, N. M. The main determinants of inflation in South Africa: An empirical investigation. Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, v. 9, n. 2, p. 212-232, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15388/omee.2018.10.00011. https://doi.org/10.15388/omee.2018.10.00... ),Boneva et al (2019BONEVA, L. et al. Firms’ price, cost and activity expectations: Evidence from micro data. The Economic Journal, v. 130, n. 627, p. 555-586, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez059. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uez059... ),Daniels, Mazumder, and VanHoose (2019DANIELS, J. P.; MAZUMDER, S.; VANHOOSE, D. D. Expected inflation and the sacrifice ratio. International Finance, v. 22, n. 3, p. 1-16, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12340. https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12340... ),Bojaj and Djurovic (2020BOJAJ, M.; DJUROVIC, G. Forecasting inflation: A combination approach. Engineering Economics, v. 31, n. 2, p. 145-154, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.2.24609. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.2.2460... ),Jolly and Indapurkar (2020JOLLY, T.; INDAPURKAR, K. An analytical study on inflationary expectations with reference to evidences from the world. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, v. 29, n. 3, p. 2536-2550, 2020. Available at: Available at: http://sersc.org/journals/index.php/IJAST/article/view/4413 . Accessed on: 23 Apr. 2021. http://sersc.org/journals/index.php/IJAS... ), Abaidoo and Anyigba (2020ABAIDOO, R.; ANYIGBA, H. Bank performance variability and strands of inflationary conditions. European Journal of Management and Business Economics, v. 29, n. 3, p.235-253, 2020. Available at: Available at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/EJMBE-09-2018-0100/full/pdf?title=bank-performance-variability-and-strands-of-inflationary-conditions . Accessed on: 15 Aug. 2022. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/... ),Nasir, Duc Huynh, and Yarovaya (2020NASIR, M. A.; DUC HUYNH, T. L.; YAROVAYA, L. Inflation targeting and implications of oil shocks for inflation expectations in oil-importing and exporting economies: Evidence from three Nordic Kingdoms. International Review of Financial Analysis , v. 72, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.1015... ), Nasir, Duc Huynh, and Vinh Vo (2020NASIR, M. A.; DUC HUYNH, T. L.; VINH VO, X. Exchange rate pass-through and management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy. International Review of Economics and Finance, v. 69, p. 178-188, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.0... )
Latin America	This category is specifically for the papers that focus their study on one or various Latin American countries. This could contain topics that fit any of the above categories, but due to the interest of this research, they are classified separately.	Gelos and Rossi Irondo (2008GELOS, G.; ROSSI IRONDO, F. Macroeconomic implications of financial dollarization: The case of Uruguay: Inflation process in Uruguay. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2008.),De Mello and Moccero (2009DE MELLO, L.; MOCCERO, D. Monetary policy and inflation expectations in Latin America: Long-run effects and volatility spillovers. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, v. 41, n. 8, p. 1671-1690, 2009. Available at: Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20685080 . Accessed on: 12 Mar. 2021. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20685080... ),Cerisola and Gelos (2009CERISOLA, M.; GELOS, G. What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis. Applied Economics, v. 41, n. 10, p. 1215-1227, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840601166892. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684060116689... ),Carrasco and Ferreiro (2011CARRASCO, C. A.; FERREIRO, J. Inflation targeting and economic performance: The case of Mexico. Panoeconomicus, v. 58, n. 5, p. 675-692, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1105675C. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1105675C... ),De Mello and Moccero (2011DE MELLO, L.; MOCCERO, D. Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Journal of International Money and Finance , v. 30, n. 1, p. 229-245, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.08.002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.... ),Carvalho and Minella (2012CARVALHO, F. A.; MINELLA, A. Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants. Journal of International Money and Finance, v. 31, n. 6, p. 1371-1391, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.02.006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.... ),Mariscal, Powell, and Tavella (2014MARISCAL, R.; POWELL, A.; TAVELLA, P. On the credibility of inflation targeting regimes in Latin America. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2014. (IDB Working Paper Series). Available at: Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/115476 . Accessed on: 20 Mar. 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/115476... ),Caldas and Curi (2017CALDAS, G.; CURI, A. Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility, and inflation risk premium. Journal of Economics and Business, v. 93, p. 46-61, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.06.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2017.... ),Caputo (2022CAPUTO, R. Addiction to inflation or to fiscal deficits? The Chilean experience of 1970s. International Journal of Financial Economics, v. 27, n. 1, p. 99-110, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2140. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2140... ),Silveira and Caldas (2020SILVEIRA, D.; CALDAS, G. Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: Evidence from Brazil. Journal of Economic Studies, v. 48, n. 3, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2019-0483. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2019-0483... )

Sub-categories	Modeling method		Documents
Inflation expectations	AR	VAR	Stillwagon (2018STILLWAGON, J. R. TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from financial panic to breakeven inflation in an automated, nonlinear modeling framework. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 80, n. 2, p. 218-235, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12218. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12218... ), Fuhrer (2012FUHRER, J. The role of expectations in inflation dynamics. International Journal of Central Banking, p. 137-165, 2012. Available at: Available at: https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q0a7.pdf . Accessed on: 30 Mar. 2021. https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb12q0a7.... )
		SVAR	Bojaj and Djurovic (2020BOJAJ, M.; DJUROVIC, G. Forecasting inflation: A combination approach. Engineering Economics, v. 31, n. 2, p. 145-154, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.2.24609. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.2.2460... ), Wimanda, Turner, and Hall (2011WIMANDA, R. E.; TURNER, P. M.; HALL, M. J. Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia. Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 33, n. 3, p. 426-438, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.08.009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.0... ), Ueda (2010UEDA, K. Determinants of households’ inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, v. 24, n. 4, p. 503-518, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.0... )
		VECM	Abdullah and Kalim (2012ABDULLAH, M.; KALIM, R. Empirical analysis of food price inflation in Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal, v. 16, n.7, p.933-939, 2012. Available at: Available at: http://escholar.umt.edu.pk:8080/jspui/bitstream/123456789/492/3/Full%20View.pdf . Accessed on: 20 Mar. 2021. http://escholar.umt.edu.pk:8080/jspui/bi... ), Horváth (2008HORVÁTH, R. Undershooting of the inflation target in the Czech Republic: The role of inflation expectations. Finance a úvěr-Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, v. 58, p. 482-492, 2008. Available at: Available at: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1145_1145_6__horvath.pdf . Accessed on: 25 Apr. 2021. http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1145_... )
		ARDL	Nampewo and Opolot (2016NAMPEWO, D.; OPOLOT, J. Financial innovations and money velocity in Uganda. African Development Review, v. 28, n. 4, p. 371-382, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12218. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12218... ), Nasir, Duc Huynh and Vinh Vo (2020NASIR, M. A.; DUC HUYNH, T. L.; YAROVAYA, L. Inflation targeting and implications of oil shocks for inflation expectations in oil-importing and exporting economies: Evidence from three Nordic Kingdoms. International Review of Financial Analysis , v. 72, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.1015... ), Bulut (2018BULUT, U. Inflation expectations in Turkey: Determinants and roles in missing inflation targets. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, v. 7, n. 3, p. 77-90, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0024. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0024... ), Nasir, Duc Huynh, and Yarovaya (2020NASIR, M. A.; DUC HUYNH, T. L.; VINH VO, X. Exchange rate pass-through and management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy. International Review of Economics and Finance, v. 69, p. 178-188, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.04.0... )
		GARCH	Coffinet and Frappa (2010COFFINET, J.; FRAPPA, S. Determinants of the inflation compensation curve in the euro area. The European Journal of Finance, v. 16, n. 8, p. 769-783, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2010.481460. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2010.48... ), Weber (2018WEBER, C. S. Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) - New evidence. International Economics and Economic Policy, v. 15, p. 21-67, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0365-z. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-016-0365-... )
		GMM	Proaño (2009PROAÑO, C. R. (De-)Stabilizing two-country macroeconomic interactions in an estimated model of the US and the Euro Area. International Economy and Economic Policy, v. 6, p. 421-443, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-009-0145-0. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-009-0145-... )
	Panel Data		Ganić (2018GANIĆ, M. An empirical analysis of factors affecting bank interest margins: Evidence from the southeast European Countries. Comparative Economic Research, v. 21, n. 2, p. 81-98, 2018. Available at: Available at: https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=746485 . Accessed on: 30 Mar. 2021. https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-det... )
	DSGE		Del Negro and Eusepi (2011DEL NEGRO, M.; EUSEPI, S. Fitting observed inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, v. 35, n. 12, p. 2105-2131, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.0... ), Doh (2011DOH, T. The yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , v. 35, n. 8, p. 1229-1244, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.03.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.03.0... )
	Phillips Curve	Phillips Curve	Posen (2011POSEN, A. The soft tyranny of inflation expectations. International Finance , v. 14, n. 3, p. 541-566, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2011.01287.x. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2011... )
	DMA		Baur, Beckmann, and Czudaj (2016BAUR, D. G.; BECKMANN, J.; CZUDAJ, R. A melting pot - Gold price forecasts under model and parameter uncertainty. International Review of Financial Analysis, v. 48, p. 282-291, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.0... )
	Carlson-Parkin probability method		Berk, J. M. (1999BERK, J. M. Measuring inflation expectations: A survey data approach. Applied Economics, v. 31, n. 11, p. 1467-1480, 1999. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499323337. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368499323337... )
	Semi-parametric model		Kanas, Vasiliou, and Eriotis (2012KANAS, A.; VASILIOU, D.; ERIOTIS, N. Revisiting bank profitability: A semi-parametric approach. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, v. 22, n. 4, p. 990-1005, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.10.003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2011.10... )
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Paper	Author(s)	Variables	Model	Timespan	Countries
Addiction to inflation or fiscal deficits? The Chilean experience of the 1970s	Rodrigo Caputo	Nominal money balances. Nominal money prices. Expected inflation level in the next period. Elements of money demand not captured by the model. Elasticity of real money demand concerning expected inflation (it is possible to derive the optimal rate of inflation, which maximizes seigniorage). Ext. debt. Dom. debt.	Cointegration techniques. VECM. Cagan Model.	1971-1980 monthly	Chile
Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations in Latin America: Long-Run Effects and Volatility Spillovers	Luiz De Mello; Diego Moccero	Interest rate. Expected inflation. Inflation target. Exchange rate. The output gap. Deviations of expected inflation from the target.	M-GARCH. Cointegration techniques. Elliott-Rithenberg-Stock (ERS). ADF-GLS.	1999-2008 monthly	Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico
Survey forecasts in Brazil: A prismatic assessment of epidemiology, performance, and determinants	Fabia A. Carvalho; André Minella	Inflation forecasts. Interest rate forecasts. Exchange rate forecasts.	ARMA. VAR. BVAR. Inspired by Carroll’s (2003) epidemiology model.	2000-2008 monthly	Brazil
What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis	Martín Cerisola; Gaston Gelos	Expected inflation. Inflation. Inflation target. Primary surplus. Real interest rate. Real effective exchange rate gap. Real wage gap.	VAR. VECM. OLS and GMM.	1995-2005 monthly	Brazil
Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil	Diego Silveira; Gabriel Caldas Montes	Credit rating agency’s variables. Output gap. Budget. Debt. Interest rate. US monetary policy interest rate. Inflation. Reserves. Global risk aversion. Dummy variable for the global financial crisis. Exchange rate volatility. Dummy for the Brazilian political crisis.	OLS and GMM	2001-2018 monthly	Brazil
On the Credibility of Inflation Targeting Regimes in Latin America	Rodrigo Mariscal; Andrew Powell; Pilar Tavella	Variables were obtained from inflation surveys. Inflation expectations	AR	2006-2012 monthly	Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay
Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico	Luiz De Mello; Diego Moccero	Inflation. The output gap. Nominal interest rate. Nominal exchange rate. Structural errors	Macro-structural model. VAR	1996-2006 monthly	Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico
Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility, and inflation risk premium	Gabriel Caldas Montes; Alexandre Curi	Inflation risk premium. The disagreement in expectations about public debt. The credibility index. Expected inflation. Nominal interest rate. Real interest rate	Fisher equation. GMM. OLS	2005-2015 monthly	Brazil
Inflation Process in Uruguay	Gaston Gelos; Alejandro López; Marco Piñon	Consumer Price Index (CPI). Expected inflation. Marginal Costs. Past inflation.	Structural price-setting model.	1998-2006 monthly	Uruguay
Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico	Carlos A. Carrasco; Jesús Ferreiro	General Index of Economic Activity (IGAE). Inflation Rate. Consumer Price Index (INPC).	ARIMA. Hodrick-Prescott filter.	1993-2009 monthly	Mexico

[1] Corresponding author: Daniel Osorio-Barreto E-mail: dosoriob@autonoma.edu.co

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AS EXPECTATIVAS DE INFLAÇÃO: UMA REVISÃO SISTEMÁTICA DE LITERATURA E ANÁLISE BIBLIOMÉTRICA

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