A TESE DA DESINDUSTRIALIZAÇÃO BRASILEIRA REVISITADA: UMA ABORDABEM DE SUBSISTEMAS, 2000-2015

Morrone, Henrique; Giovanini, Adilson; Berni, Duilio de Avila

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Revista de Economia Contemporânea

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Articles • Rev. econ. contemp. 26 • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/198055272617 copiar

A TESE DA DESINDUSTRIALIZAÇÃO BRASILEIRA REVISITADA: UMA ABORDABEM DE SUBSISTEMAS, 2000-2015

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

RESUMO

Este artigo investiga a transformação estrutural em setores e subsistemas no Brasil durante o período de 2000 a 2015, aplicando a abordagem de Momigliano e Siniscalco. Foram empregadas as tabelas brasileiras oficiais de insumo-produto de 2000, 2005, 2010 e 2015 para averiguar o emprego, valor adicionado e lucros de seis atividades econômicas. Analisando os setores e os subsistemas, pode-se melhor compreender as mudanças estruturais e sua conexão com a terceirização, particularmente na manufatura. As estimações alcançadas enfatizaram um processo mais fraco de declínio da manufatura quando utilizamos a abordagem do subsistema. A crescente integração dos serviços de mercado na manufatura explica, pelo menos parcialmente, o menor declínio manufatureiro em termos de participação de valor adicionado e lucro na economia.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Emprego; valor agregado; subsistemas; mudança estrutural

a. Sectoral and subsystem number of occupations in the total economy
Sectors		2000	2005	2010	2015
Primary	Sectoral	17,846,824	19,256,324	15,747,875	13,425,082
Primary	Subsystem	7,596,600	8,365,520	8,250,344	8,697,649
Manufacturing	Sectoral	9,493,708	11,673,764	11,604,977	11,213,515
Manufacturing	Subsystem	20,199,523	24,830,126	24,139,714	21,901,730
Public Utilities	Sectoral	342,196	372,432	698,961	677,421
Public Utilities	Subsystem	452,800	462,952	739,553	864,637
Construction	Sectoral	5,329,906	5,872,879	7,844,451	8,639,884
Construction	Subsystem	7,296,247	7,223,133	10,845,562	11,239,595
Market services	Sectoral	37,943,862	44,429,691	51,695,459	56,831,643
Market services	Subsystem	31,745,950	36,053,272	39,311,160	43,736,432
Non-market services	Sectoral	8,015,851	9,300,583	10,524,495	11,167,531
Non-market services	Subsystem	11,681,227	13,970,670	14,829,885	15,515,032
b. Sectoral and subsystem occupation shares in the total economy (%)
Sectors		2000	2005	2010	2015
Primary	Sectoral	22.6%	21.2%	16.1%	13.2%
Primary	Subsystem	9.6%	9.2%	8.4%	8.5%
Manufacturing	Sectoral	12.0%	12.8%	11.8%	11.0%
Manufacturing	Subsystem	25.6%	27.3%	24.6%	21.5%
Public Utilities	Sectoral	0.4%	0.4%	0.7%	0.7%
Public Utilities	Subsystem	0.6%	0.5%	0.8%	0.8%
Construction	Sectoral	6.7%	6.5%	8.0%	8.5%
Construction	Subsystem	9.2%	7.9%	11.1%	11.0%
Market services	Sectoral	48.0%	48.9%	52.7%	55.7%
Market services	Subsystem	40.2%	39.7%	40.1%	42.9%
Non-market services	Sectoral	10.2%	10.2%	10.7%	11.0%
Non-market services	Subsystem	14.8%	15.4%	15.1%	15.2%

a. Absolute numbers
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	397,142	4,900,111	206,310	1,210,974	28,664,072	2,565,254
2005	724,723	6,382,704	225,171	1,012,231	32,772,772	3,312,090
2010	980,821	8,310,468	287,909	2,019,876	36,637,990	3,458,396
2015	1,347,907	8,327,156	393,406	1,966,201	41,119,598	3,677,375
Change 2000-2005	82.5	30.3	9.1	-16.4	14.3	29.1
Change 2005-2010	35.3	30.2	27.9	99.5	11.8	4.4
Change 2010-2015	37.4	0.2	36.6	-2.7	12.2	6.3
Change 2000-2015	239.4	69.9	90.7	62.4	43.5	43.4
b. Market services shares in subsystems (%)
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	5.2	24.2	45.5	16.6	90.2	21.9
2005	8.6	25.7	48.6	14.0	90.9	23.7
2010	11.8	34.4	38.9	18.6	93.2	23.3
2015	15.5	38.0	45.5	17.4	94.0	23.7
Change 2000-2005	65.7	5.9	6.7	-15.5	0.6	7.9
Change 2005-2010	37.2	33.9	-19.9	32.9	2.5	-1.6
Change 2010-2015	30.3	10.4	16.8	-6.0	0.8	1.6
Change 2000-2015	196.4	56.7	-0.1	5.4	4.1	7.9

a. Absolute numbers
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	192,676	7,130,095	42,407	590,116	1,139,907	398,506
2005	327,859	8,989,620	47,487	521,924	1,305,157	481,718
2010	315,955	8,933,776	65,652	843,066	1,083,835	362,692
2015	415,999	8,488,144	79,524	758,318	1,153,190	318,340
Change 2000-2005	70.2	26.1	12.0	-11.6	14.5	20.9
Change 2005-2010	-3.6	-0.6	38.3	61.5	-17.0	-24.7
Change 2010-2015	31.7	-5.0	21.1	-10.1	6.4	-12.2
Change 2000-2015	115.9	19.0	87.5	28.5	1.2	-20.1
b. Manufacturing shares in subsystems (%)
	Primary	Manufacturing	Industrial Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	2.5	35.3	9.3	8.0	3.5	3.4
2005	3.9	36.2	10.2	7.2	3.6	3.4
2010	3.8	37.0	8.8	7.7	2.7	2.4
2015	4.7	38.7	9.2	6.7	2.6	2.0
Change 2000-2005	54.5	2.5	9.5	-10.6	0.8	1.0
Change 2005-2010	-2.2	2.2	-13.4	7.5	-23.8	-29.0
Change 2010-2015	24.8	4.7	3.6	-13.2	-4.3	-16.1
Change 2000-2015	88.5	9.7	-1.7	-16.5	-26.5	-39.8

a. Sectoral/subsystem value-added in the total economy (1,000,000 Reals) (Prices of 2015)
		2000	2005	2010	2015
Primary	Sectoral	203,981	263,501	317,636	369,740
	Subsystem	101,631	148,715	215,993	275,962
Manufacturing	Sectoral	538,067	633,442	703,337	630,813
	Subsystem	751,792	932,141	1,077,312	1,000,485
Public Utilities	Sectoral	88,111	96,184	116,746	123,183
	Subsystem	49,266	46,407	70,038	81,063
Construction	Sectoral	201,333	204,868	284,819	296,018
	Subsystem	279,602	258,851	425,401	421,903
Market services	Sectoral	1,805,672	2,070,104	2,646,424	2,850,260
	Subsystem	1,490,136	1,666,813	2,076,061	2,285,193
Non-market services	Sectoral	641,167	740,321	836,134	885,587
	Subsystem	805,903	955,492	1,040,292	1,090,995
b. Sectoral/subsystem value-added shares in Brazil, 2000-2015
		2000	2005	2010	2015
Primary	Sectoral	5.9	6.6	6.5	7.2
	Subsystem	2.9	3.7	4.4	5.4
Manufacturing	Sectoral	15.5	15.8	14.3	12.2
	Subsystem	21.6	23.3	22.0	19.4
Public Utilities	Sectoral	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.4
	Subsystem	1.4	1.2	1.4	1.6
Construction	Sectoral	5.8	5.1	5.8	5.7
	Subsystem	8.0	6.5	8.7	8.2
Market services	Sectoral	51.9	51.6	54.0	55.3
	Subsystem	42.8	41.6	42.3	44.3
Non-market services	Sectoral	18.4	18.5	17.0	17.2
	Subsystem	23.2	23.8	21.2	21.2

a. Absolute numbers (1,000,000 Reals) (Prices of 2015)
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	17,783	220,683	9,000	52,148	1,378,302	127,755
2005	31,405	276,071	9,369	41,009	1,543,431	168,818
2010	44,945	372,870	13,606	90,609	1,952,238	172,156
2015	58,455	356,808	17,776	85,032	2,154,176	178,013
Change 2000-2005	76.6	25.1	4.1	-21.4	12.0	32.1
Change 2005-2010	43.1	35.1	45.2	120.9	26.5	2.0
Change 2010-2015	30.1	-4.3	30.7	-6.2	10.3	3.4
Change 2000-2015	228.7	61.7	97.5	63.1	56.3	39.3
b. Market services shares in subsystems (%)
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	17.5	29.3	18.2	18.6	92.5	15.8
2005	21.1	29.6	20.1	15.8	92.6	17.6
2010	20.8	34.6	19.4	21.3	94.0	16.5
2015	21.1	35.6	21.9	20.1	94.2	16.3
Change 2000-2005	20.7	0.9	10.5	-15.1	0.1	11.5
Change 2005-2010	-1.5	16.9	-3.8	34.4	1.6	-6.3
Change 2010-2015	1.8	3.0	12.9	-5.4	0.2	-1.4
Change 2000-2015	21.1	21.5	20.0	8.1	1.9	2.9

a. Absolute numbers (1,000,000 Reals) (Prices of 2015)
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	10,920	404,106	2,403	33,446	64,606	22,586
2005	17,790	487,795	2,577	28,321	70,820	26,139
2010	19,149	541,445	3,979	51,095	65,687	21,982
2015	23,402	477,498	4,474	42,659	64,872	17,908
Change 2000-2005	62.9	20.7	7.2	-15.3	9.6	15.7
Change 2005-2010	7.6	11.0	54.4	80.4	-7.2	-15.9
Change 2010-2015	22.2	-11.8	12.4	-16.5	-1.2	-18.5
Change 2000-2015	114.3	18.2	86.1	27.5	0.4	-20.7
b. Manufacturing shares in subsystems (%)
	Primary	Manufacturing	Public Utilities	Construction	Market services	Non-market services
2000	10.7	53.7	4.8	11.9	4.3	2.8
2005	11.9	52.3	5.5	10.9	4.2	2.7
2010	8.8	50.2	5.6	12.0	3.1	2.1
2015	8.4	47.7	5.5	10.1	2.8	1.6
Change 2000-2005	11.3	-2.6	13.8	-8.5	-2.0	-2.4
Change 2005-2010	-25.9	-4.0	2.3	9.8	-25.5	-22.8
Change 2010-2015	-4.3	-5.0	-2.9	-15.8	-10.3	-22.3
Change 2000-2015	-21.1	-11.2	13.1	-15.5	-34.5	-41.4

a. Sectoral/subsystem profits in the entire economy (1,000,000 Reals) (Prices of 2015)
		2000	2005	2010	2015
Primary	Sectoral	123,348	153,406	197,276	231,023
	Subsystem	54,654	79,136	123,421	153,080
Manufacturing	Sectoral	242,437	304,965	294,846	206,404
	Subsystem	344,725	457,746	492,048	409,200
Public Utilities	Sectoral	62,167	74,759	88,668	87,447
	Subsystem	31,077	31,480	46,908	50,129
Construction	Sectoral	130,440	100,434	138,119	126,301
	Subsystem	160,707	125,634	202,604	180,221
Market services	Sectoral	825,727	1,018,585	1,355,432	1,436,360
	Subsystem	712,720	846,647	1,105,143	1,194,954
Non-market services	Sectoral	77,822	84,708	78,755	87,589
	Subsystem	158,058	196,214	182,971	187,540
b. Sectoral/subsystem profit shares in the total economy (%)
		2000	2005	2010	2015
Primary	Sectoral	8.4	8.8	9.1	10.6
	Subsystem	3.7	4.5	5.7	7.0
Manufacturing	Sectoral	16.5	17.5	13.6	9.4
	Subsystem	23.5	26.3	22.8	18.8
b. Sectoral/subsystem profit shares in the total economy (%)
		2000	2005	2010	2015
Public Utilities	Sectoral	4.2	4.3	4.1	4.0
	Subsystem	2.1	1.8	2.1	2.3
Construction	Sectoral	8.9	5.7	6.4	5.8
	Subsystem	10.9	7.2	9.4	8.2
Market services	Sectoral	56.4	58.6	62.9	66.0
	Subsystem	48.7	48.7	51.3	54.9
Non-market services	Sectoral	5.3	4.8	3.6	4.0
	Subsystem	10.8	11.3	8.5	8.6

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[1] Autor para correspondência: Henrique Morrone E-mail de contato: hmorrone@hotmail.com