Coalizões para o desenvolvimento: uma nova interpretação novo-desenvolvimentista para o abandono do capital industrial da coalização política do PT

PORTO, TIAGO COUTO

doi:10.1590/0101-31572020-3092

TIAGO COUTO PORTO

Member of the Centro de Estudos sobre o Novo Desenvolvimentismo da Fundação Getulio Vargas de S.Paulo, São Paulo/SP Brasil: E-mail: tiagocoutoporto@gmail.com.

** Paper presented to the 4th Workshop on New Developmentalism of Fundação Getulio Vargas “Theory and Policy for Developing Countries”, São Paulo, 25-26 July 2019.

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0023-7801

Figuras (2)
Tabelas (3)

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Graph 1:
The Financial Cost of Debt VS the Return on Invested Capital

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Graph 2:
Profit margin - by economic activity

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Table 1:
Demands from Productive capitalists and Workers VS Dilma’s public policies

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Table 2:
Selected Macroeconomic Variables

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Classes Workers Middle Class Capitalist Class "New" "Traditional" Productive Rentiers Financiers Actors Dispossessed of means of production, they sell their labor force as a means of subsistence. Represented by CUT, Central Sindical Wage earners mainly in the service sector - teachers, cops, salespeople and administrative assistants Public servants, middle entrepreneurs and self-employed and high-medium -skill wage earnings Industrial, agricultural and service sector (FIESP, CNI) Inheritor elite , doesn't work and live through rents Executives of multinationals, bankers, financial market employees Interesses/ Policy rescriptions a) Salary readjustments, labor protection, minimum wages. b) social pol. like poverty and income reduction, education, health Public University, Social policies Public University, Mantainance of social status a)Flexibilization of labor laws and tax reduction. B) industrial protection. C) Interest rates reduction and currency devaluation Financialization and integration with the global financial system, Free capital mobility, Privatizations, Independent Central Bank. Exchange appreciated, low inflation, high interest rate. Flexibilization of working conditions and pension reform Power and resistence methodos Strikes and social movements Social movements Veto Power (investments) and lobby Veto Power (stocks and debt) and lobby Democracy Social democracy Social democracy Liberal democracy Social democracy/ Liberal democracy Liberal democracy Ideology Socialism and developmentalism Liberal/developmentalism Neoliberal Developmentalism/ Neoliberal Neoliberal Source: Author’s elaboration.

Demands***	Public policies
Reduction of the interest rate and spreads	a) Reductions of the basic interest rate (SELIC) from 12.5 in July 2011 to 7,25 in October 2012. In April 2013 real interest rate was of 2%*. b) Forced Public banks (Caixa Econômica Federal and Banco do Brasil) to reduce their interest rates boosting competition and reducing Spreads.
Strengthen BNDES	Subsidized credit line by means of treasury onleading’s - Contribution of 400 billion Reais in the first Dilma’s mandate**
Industrial Policy	a) Investment Support Program (PSI) - aimed at the production, acquisition and export of capital goods and technological innovation; b) Plano Brasil Maior - a federal program to increase the competitiveness of the industry whose logo would be “Innovate to Compete. Compete to Grow “.
Strengthen payroll exemption	April 2012 is announced payroll exemption for 15 labor-intensive sectors and reached in 2014, 42 sectors and savings of 25 billion annually for the businessman**
National content and Government purchases (national preference)	July 2012 launched a program of government purchases to favor local production and September 2012 import tariffs were increased for 100 products**.
Social and employment policies	Increased in average 12 percent, annually, from 2011 to 2014 social benefits like unemployment insurance, social security benefits, INSS welfare benefits****
Technical education	In April 28 of 2011 was launched the Pronatec program (Programa Nacional de Acesso ao Ensino Técnico e Emprego) that merges different programs and contributions in terms of education
Exchange rate policies	The real exchange rate per dollar went from 1.67 at the end of 2010 to 1.84 at the end of 2011 and 2.05 at the end of 2012. Considering the annual averages, there were a depreciation of 17% in the nominal exchange rate of the real per dollar in 2012*****
Portfolio investment control	Increase in aliquots of IOF over foreign portfolio investment and others

Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Annual GDP growth rate	4,0%	1,9%	3,0%	0,5%	(-)3,5%	(-)3,5%
Investment rate as percentage of GDP	20,6 %	20,7%	20,9%	19,9%	17,8%	16,4%
IPCA	6,5%	5,84%	5,91%	6,41%	10,67%	6,29%
Basic Interest Rate (SELIC - accumulated in the year)	11,6%	8,5%	8,2%	10,9%	13,3%	14,0%
Unemployment rate	6,0%	5,5%	5,4%	4,8%	6,9%	1,1%
Household Consumption	2,5%	2,3%	2,2%	1,6%	-1,5%	-2,1%
Government Consumption	0,4%	0,2%	0,9%	0,4%	-0,2%	-0,3%
Net Exports	-0,2%	1,1%	0,9%	0,5%	-0,4%	-1,1%
Average Exchange Rate (Dollar/Real)	1,76	1,67	1,95	2,16	2,35	3,33

Classes	Workers	Middle Class		Capitalist Class
		"New"	"Traditional"	Productive	Rentiers	Financiers
Actors	Dispossessed of means of production, they sell their labor force as a means of subsistence. Represented by CUT, Central Sindical	Wage earners mainly in the service sector - teachers, cops, salespeople and administrative assistants	Public servants, middle entrepreneurs and self-employed and high-medium -skill wage earnings	Industrial, agricultural and service sector (FIESP, CNI)	Inheritor elite , doesn't work and live through rents	Executives of multinationals, bankers, financial market employees
Interesses/ Policy rescriptions	a) Salary readjustments, labor protection, minimum wages. b) social pol. like poverty and income reduction, education, health	Public University, Social policies	Public University, Mantainance of social status	a)Flexibilization of labor laws and tax reduction. B) industrial protection. C) Interest rates reduction and currency devaluation	Financialization and integration with the global financial system, Free capital mobility, Privatizations, Independent Central Bank. Exchange appreciated, low inflation, high interest rate. Flexibilization of working conditions and pension reform
Power and resistence methodos	Strikes and social movements	Social movements		Veto Power (investments) and lobby	Veto Power (stocks and debt) and lobby
Democracy	Social democracy	Social democracy	Liberal democracy	Social democracy/ Liberal democracy	Liberal democracy
Ideology	Socialism and developmentalism	Liberal/developmentalism	Neoliberal	Developmentalism/ Neoliberal	Neoliberal

[TFN1] Sources: Author’s elaboration based on various sources:

[TFN2] * Mello and Rossi (2017Mello, Guilherme, and Pedro Rossi. (2017). “Do Industrialismo à Austeridade: A Política Macro Dos Governos Dilma.” Texto Para Discussão, n.309. Instituto de Economia Da Unicamp, June, 1-36.)

[TFN3] **Singer (2015Singer, Andre. (2015). “Cutucando Onças Com Varas Curtas: O Ensaio Desenvolvimentista No Primeiro Mandato de Dilma R Ousseff (2011-2014).” Novos Estudos, no. 102 (July): 42-71.)

[TFN4] *** Document “Brasil do Diálogo, da Produção e do Emprego em: https://www.fiesp.com.br/brasil-do-dialogo-pela-producao-e-emprego/

[TFN5] ****Ipeadata (accessed 2018)

[TFN6] *****Barbosa (2013Barbosa Filho, Nelson. (2013). “Dez Anos de Política Econômica.” In 10 Anos de Governos Pós-Neoliberais No Brasil: Lula e Dilma, Emir Sader, 69-103. Rio de Janeiro: FLACSO: Boitempo.)

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Coalizões para o desenvolvimento: uma nova interpretação novo-desenvolvimentista para o abandono do capital industrial da coalização política do PT

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