Desindustrialização setorial e estagnação de longo prazo do setor manufatureiro brasileiro

MORCEIRO, PAULO CÉSAR; GUILHOTO, JOAQUIM JOSÉ MARTINS

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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 43 (2) • Apr-Jun 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572023-3340 copiar

Desindustrialização setorial e estagnação de longo prazo do setor manufatureiro brasileiro

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

RESUMO

No Brasil e em outras partes do mundo, os diagnósticos de desindustrialização estão concentrados na manufatura agregada, de modo que as políticas podem ser ineficazes se a desindustrialização tiver um componente específico para o setor. Este estudo quantifica e analisa a desindustrialização para os subsetores individualizados da manufatura. Para tanto, foram criadas séries inéditas da participação dos subsetores da indústria no PIB brasileiro de 1970 a 2016, com base em dados oficiais do IBGE. Os resultados mostram que os subsetores da manufatura têm se desindustrializado em diferentes intensidades e períodos de manufatura agregada, e uma abordagem subsetorial revela traços ignorados pela literatura sobre a qualidade da desindustrialização. Concluímos que a desindustrialização brasileira é normal (e esperada) para os subsetores manufatureiros intensivos em mão de obra, mas prematura (e indesejável) para os subsetores intensivos em tecnologia. Portanto, a desindustrialização brasileira tem consequências negativas para o futuro desenvolvimento científico e tecnológico do país.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
Desindustrialização setorial; desenvolvimento industrial; heterogeneidade setorial; mudança estrutural

	World			World w/o China			United States			Brazil
	1980	2015	Δ%	1980	2015	Δ%	1980	2015	Δ%	1980	2015	Δ%
MVA/GDP (in %), current prices	23.2	16.5	-29	23.1	14.6	-37	20.6	12.0	-42	24.5	12.2	-50
MVA/GDP (in %), 2005 constant prices	16.3	18.0	10	16.2	16.1	-1	12.4	12.6	2	23.0	13.3	-42
Real MVA (1980=1,00)	1.00	2.75	175	1.00	2.24	124	1.00	2.26	126	1.00	1.28	28

Development stage	GDP per capita in PPP 2016	Manufacturing sub-sectors that peaked in GDP
Initial	<US$ 8k	Food, beverages, and tobacco
		Textiles and wearing apparel
		Wood and Furniture
		Printing
		Non-metallic minerals
Intermediary	US$ 8k to US$ 18.5k	Coke and refined petroleum
		Paper
		Basic metals
		Fabricated metals
Advanced	>US$ 18.5k	Plastics and rubber
		Motor vehicles
		Chemicals
		Machinery and equipment
		Electrical equipment
		Computer, electronic and optical products

		Aggregate 1970 to 2016	CCN Ref. 1980-36 sectors	SCN Ref. 1985-43 sectors	SCN Ref. 2010-51 sectors
MANUFACTURING	Lower technological intensity	Food, beverages and tobacco	Food	Manufacture of coffee	Food and beverages
			Beverages	Processing of vegetable-based products, including tobacco	Tobacco products
			Tobacco products	Processing and preserving of meat
				Manufacture of dairy products
				Manufacture of sugar
				Manufacture and refinement of vegetable oils and fat
				Manufacture of other food products and beverages
		Textiles	Textiles	Textiles	Textiles
		Wearing apparel, leather and footwear	Wearing apparel and footwear	Wearing apparel	Wearing apparel
		Wearing apparel, leather and footwear	Leather and related products	Footwear, leather and related products	Footwear, leather and related products
		Furniture, wood and other manufacturing	Wood	Sawmilling and manufacture of products of wood and furniture	Furniture and other manufacturing
			Furniture
			Other manufacturing	Other manufacturing
		Paper and printing	Paper and paper products	Paper and printing	Paper and paper products
		Paper and printing	Publishing and printing	Paper and printing	Newspapers, magazines, and disks
		Non-metallic minerals	Non-metallic mineral products	Non-metallic minerals	Cement and other non-metallic mineral products
		Basic metals and fabricated metals	Basic metals and fabricated metals	Manufacture of steel	Manufacture of steel and derivatives
				Manufacture of basic precious and other non-ferrous metals	Manufacture of basic precious and other non-ferrous metals
				Manufacture of other metallurgic products	Fabricated metals, except machinery and equipment
		Rubber and plastics	Rubber	Rubber	Rubber and plastics
		Rubber and plastics	Plastics products	Plastics products	Rubber and plastics
	Higher technological intensity	Chemicals and refined petroleum	Chemicals and chemical products	Refined petroleum products and petrochemicals	Refined petroleum products
				Manufacture of non-petrochemical chemicals	Manufacture of resin and elastomers
				Manufacture of diverse chemicals	Alcohol
					Chemical products
					Pesticides and other agrochemical products
					Paints, varnishes, enamel and lacquer
					Diverse chemical products
		Pharmaceuticals	Pharmaceuticals	Manufacture of pharmaceutical and perfume items	Pharmaceutical products
		Pharmaceuticals	Perfumes, soaps, and candles	Manufacture of pharmaceutical and perfume items	Perfumery, hygiene and cleaning
		Machinery and equipment	Mechanical industry	Manufacture and maintenance of machinery and tractors	Machinery and equipment including maintenance and repairs
		Electrical equipment, and computers & electronics	Electrical and communications equipment	Manufacture of electrical equipment and apparatus	Domestic appliances and electrical equipment
		Electrical equipment, and computers & electronics	Electrical and communications equipment	Manufacture of apparatus and electronic material equipment	Office machines, electronic apparatus and equipment
		Motor vehicles and other transport equipment	Motor vehicles and other transport equipment	Manufacture of automobiles, trucks and buses	Cars, pickups, trucks and buses
				Manufacture of other vehicles, parts and accessories	Parts and accessories for motor vehicles
				Manufacture of other vehicles, parts and accessories	Other transport equipment

Centro de Economia Política Rua Araripina, 106, CEP 05603-030 São Paulo - SP, Tel. (55 11) 3816-6053 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

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[TFN1] Source: United Nations, World Bank, IBGE (1994IBGE. (1994) Contas consolidadas para a nação - Brasil: 1980-1993. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE., 1996IBGE. (1996) Contas consolidadas para a nação - Brasil: 1990-1995. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE., 2004IBGE. (2004) Sistema de contas nacionais: Brasil: 2003. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE., 2019IBGE. (2019) Contas Nacionais Trimestrais: 4º trimestre de 2018. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.). Elaborated by the authors.