Though published in the early 1930’s, and despite recent interest in his theory, Kalecki’s investment model has not been subject to much empirical testing. This paper specifies a three equation short run version of Kalecki’s investment model and estimates it using annual U.S. data between 1948-1980. A surprising result is that U.S. economy appears to have been dynamically unstable in the period analyzed, with cycles of increasing amplitude.
KEYWORDS:
investment; Kalecki; economic cycle
| Ano | Pt | It | Dt | Kt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | 169,7 | 82,1 | 38,1 | 205 |
| 1949 | 176,6 | 65,4 | 41,5 | 222 |
| 1950 | 185,7 | 93,5 | 43,9 | 241 |
| 1951 | 201,1 | 93,9 | 47,6 | 263 |
| 1952 | 202,5 | 83,0 | 50,6 | 283 |
| 1953 | 205,0 | 85,3 | 52,7 | 304 |
| 1954 | 209,6 | 83,1 | 54,9 | 320 |
| 1955 | 222,6 | 103,8 | 57,2 | 338 |
| 1956 | 213,7 | 102,6 | 61,6 | 357 |
| 1957 | 222,7 | 97,0 | 64,2 | 374 |
| 1958 | 229,7 | 87,5 | 65,9 | 385 |
| 1959 | 240,1 | 108,0 | 66,4 | 398 |
| 1960 | 238,8 | 104,7 | 67,4 | 411 |
| 1961 | 251,2 | 103,9 | 68,5 | 424 |
| 1962 | 274, 1 | 117,6 | 69,4 | 439 |
| 1963 | 284,9 | 125, 1 | 70,6 | 457 |
| 1964 | 295,3 | 133,0 | 72,7 | 478 |
| 1965 | 315,2 | 151,9 | 75,3 | 508 |
| 1966 | 338,7 | 163,0 | 79,1 | 544 |
| 1967 | 341,0 | 154,9 | 83,4 | 579 |
| 1968 | 343,6 | 161,6 | 87,3 | 615 |
| 1969 | 343,7 | 171,4 | 92,2 | 6.55 |
| 1970 | 343,4 | 158,5 | 96,3 | 693 |
| 1971 | 373,9 | 173,9 | 100,5 | 727 |
| 1972 | 400,9 | 195,0 | 106,4 | 764 |
| 1973 | 430,0 | 217,5 | 110,2 | 813 |
| 1974 | 427,5 | 195,5 | 118,2 | 864 |
| 1975 | 443,3 | 154,8 | 126,6 | 900 |
| 1976 | 466,8 | 184,5 | 132,2 | 938 |
| 1977 | 498,5 | 214,2 | 139,4 | 986 |
| 1978 | 527,5 | 236,7 | 147,9 | 1044 |
| 1979 | 551,7 | 236,3 | 156,6 | 1107 |
| 1980 | 550,4 | 208,4 | 164,1 | 1163 |
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