Notes on the Brazilian inflationary process: 1986-1991

LUQUE, CARLOS ANTONIO

Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Brasil

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

Español English

Brasil

Español English

sumário « anterior atual seguinte »

Sumário

Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 13 (2) • Apr-Jun 1993 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571993-0629 copy

Notes on the Brazilian inflationary process: 1986-1991

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The aim of this essay is to examine the 1986-91 Brazilian inflationary process. This essay will take the broadest analytical line, considering the inflationary process resulting from the evolutionary dynamics of the elements that affect the aggregate supply and demand. Regarding the aggregate demand shifts we emphasize the relationships between fiscal and monetary policies. We stressed that the impact of public sector deficit has been seen much more as a financing problem rather than the result of its levels. Regarding costs we emphasize the role of the relative price of competitive sectors that are more important in determining real wages and those of the oligopolistic sector. Our study seems to suggest that the causes of Brazilian inflationary process are many and complex and their solution do not depend solely upon the squeeze of the public sector deficit.

KEYWORDS:
Inflation; stabilization

Discriminação	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1989	1990
Discriminação	1985	1986	1987	1988	IPCt	IPCt+1	1990
Total	28,6	11,3	32,3	53,0	73,00	83,1	26,9
Nominal	4,4	3,6	5,7	4,8	12,38	6,9	-1,2
Operacional	-2,6	-1,6	1,0	-0,9	0,08	1,0	-4,5

Anos	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Jan.	10,2	31,6	60,2	17,5	56,0	111,5
Fev.	22,0	44,5	60,8	25,4	70,0	111,2
Mar.	16,8	26,1	34,0	31,8	188,7	50,8
Abr.	13,4	45,2	27,0	33,1	133,7	44,7
Mai.	18,6	49,6	10,3	38,9	172,3	59,4
Jun.	22,9	50,3	24,5	39,7	120,5	44,2
Jul.	38,2	79,2	25,4	47,3	75,4	17,4
Ago.	36,3	66,2	22,0	61,8	67,7	13,7
Set.	27,8	76,3	27,3	46,0	89,6	6,3
Out.	27,9	100,9	22,5	66,2	123,9	5,7
Nov.	38,0	100,5	22,6	63,2	88,2	13,7
Dez.	52,5	82,7	30,4	58,7	128,9	9,4

1. Comércio geral (base: média 85=100)
Anos	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Jan.	85.9	96.2	108.3	92.8	86.8	94.6
Fev.	78.1	90.8	99.5	97.9	96.5	78.9
Mar.	89.9	99.2	91.3	101.3	114.4	69.2
Abr.	84.9	113.4	93.3	95.5	101.1	80.5
Mai.	96.9	123.4	98.0	87.5	96.2	93.4
Jun.	92.8	117.9	86.9	102.2	100.9	82.4
Jul.	105.1	132.5	88.1	90.9	91.3	76.2
Ago.	125.0	109.0	90.2	90.0	92.5	86.5
Set.	102.5	136.3	90.2	88.0	93.5	87.0
Out.	111.5	147.9	88.5	79.2	90.3	85.4
Nov.	110.4	141.4	88.5	85.9	87.9	81.5
Dez.	135.6	175.0	90.9	88.0	89.7	80.5

2. Consumo de bens duráveis (base: média 1988=100)
Anos	1987	1988	1989	1990
Jan.		102.0	94.1	102.4
Fev.		120.1	110.9	88.0
Mar.		131.9	139.3	84.4
Abr.		113.9	120.0	104.4
Mai.		105.1	127.4	124.3
Jun.	101.2	115.0	114.6	101.5
Jul.	110.5	103.0	92.1	95.1
Ago.	114.7	92.4	96.9	111.5
Set.	114.9	89.0	99.4	109.5
Out.	102.5	86.6	93.6	114.8
Nov.	100.9	90.3	95.9	105.2
Dez.	101.5	94.3	105.5

Ano	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Jan.	100.0	104.6	101.4	110.6	104.1
Fev.	96.9	101.0	101.1	95.3	95.8
Mar.	109.1	109.4	101.7	99.3	91.4
Abr.	110.8	105.5	108.9	104.4	76.7
Mai.	111.7	104.2	113.0	103.7	74.2
Jun.	110.2	105.0	109.1	93.8	80.8
Jul.	112.0	96.6	108.0	100.5	91.3
Ago.	113.2	96.0	108.8	102.0	94.2
Set.	113.3	99.2	104.1	97.9	89.5
Out.	122.8	98.3	107.0	104.6	85.5
Nov.	118.6	107.8	113.8	115.1	93.2
Dez.	116.0	107.1	116.9	115.3	87.9

Ano	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
Jan.	99.0	96.9	88.8	95.4	82.3	55.2
Fev.	103.1	102.0	93.8	96.1	91.7	57.2
Mar.	107.9	98.6	87.9	96.3	81.5	52.8
Abr.	110.2	96.7	85.7	89.0	71.4	68.9
Mai.	98.6	95.7	91.8	87.2	64.6	72.8
Jun.	99.6	95.9	95.4	86.9	66.5	65.4
Jul.	98.4	94.7	106.7	85.9	70.9	60.9
Ago.	99.8	93.7	107.0	86.6	61.7	55.9
Set.	107.6	92.6	103.4	87.0	67.7	54.5
Out.	102.5	85.2	100.9	85.7	63.3	63.6
Nov.	93.7	85.8	91.0	81.8	54.3	66.1
Dez.	98.3	84.9	92.7	78.6	53.8	74.7

Centro de Economia Política Rua Araripina, 106, CEP 05603-030 São Paulo - SP, Tel. (55 11) 3816-6053 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

Acompanhe os números deste periódico no seu leitor de RSS

[TFN1] Obs.: os valores percentuais apresentados para o período de 1985 a 1988, conceito operacional, foram calculados a partir da utilização do IPC (t); para o ano de 1989 calcularam-se utilizando o IPC(t) e IPC(t+1), para as operações sujeitas a taxas de juros de curto prazo; e, em 1990, foi aplicado IPC(t+1) para todas as operações ativas e passivas com o setor interno.

[TFN2] Fonte: Brasil-Programa Econômico, Banco Central do Brasil, março de 1990 e março de 1991.