Debt, seigniorage and inflation in a Brazilian economy

LIPIETZ, ALAIN

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Brasil

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 11 (1) • Jan-Mar 1991 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571991-0702 copy

Debt, seigniorage and inflation in a Brazilian economy

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

New industrialized countries presented some similarities in its inflation dynamics, particularly with strong monopolization and wage policy. Another feature is the manipulation of the exchange rate to attend specific targets, not considering the dangers of inflation. This paper aims to understand this process, especially how local currencies started to loss their role as reserve of value, the dollarization present in such economies and how foreign debt is an issue.

KEYWORDS:
Inflation; seigniorage; public debt

	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986
Déficit do Setor Público	13,6	17,1	8,9	7,7	8,4	16,8
Rendimentos	26,0	29,9	32,9	33,2	31,7	28,4
Despesas	39,6	47,0	41,8	40,9	40,1	45,2
Juros	5,0	9,1	14,1	11,6	12,2	18,7
Investimentos	9,6	8,0	5,7	5,3	4,9	5,3
Proporção Juros/Déficit	0,37	0,53	1,58	1,51	1,45	1,11

	A	B	E	D	E	F	G	H	I
	Currencies	Cur. Acc.	Monetary Assets	Treasury Bills	Saving lnst.	Fixed Tern Deposits	Other Public Debts	Other fin. Assets	Total Non-Monetary
1964	21.1	71.7	92.8	0.7	0.0	2.5	0.0	4.0	7.2
1965	16.6	70.7	87.3	4.1	0.0	2.5	0.0	6.1	12.7
1966	18.0	62.3	80.3	10.2	0.1	2.4	0.0	7.	19.7
1967	14.1	59.7	73.8	11.4	0.3	3.4	0.0	11.2	26.2
1968	12.7	53.7	66.5	10.4	0.4	4.5	2.0	15.7	33.5
1969	12.0	50.0	63.0	13.0	1.5	4.7	2.0	15.8	37.
1970	10.7	45.7	56.4	15.7	3.3	7.1	1.9	15.7	43.6
1971	9.3	40.9	50.2	14.7	4.1	10.3	1.6	19.	49.8
1972	8.2	37.3	45.5	17.1	5.5	12.1	1.2	18.6	54.5
1973	7.8	36.6	44.3	15.8	6.7	12.2	1.5	19.6	55.7
1974	7.1	35.8	43.0	16.3	9.9	11.5	1.9	17.5	57.0
1975	6.9	33.1	40.0	18.0	12.3	12.2	3.1	17.4	60.
1976	6.8	29.9	36.7	21.6	15.9	10.8	3.4	11.6	63.3
1977	6.6	28.2	34.9	20.8	18.1	13.6	3.2	9.4	65.1
1978	6.3	25.9	32.2	20.9	19.2	15.1	3.1	9.4	67.8
1979	7.0	27.9	34.8	16.6	21.8	15.1	3.5	8.3	65.2
1980	7.1	27.7	34.8	14.0	24.0	15.6	3.7	7.1	65.2
1981	5.4	20.3	25.7	23.3	25.5	16.0	4.2	5.3	74.3
1982	4.7	15.0	19.7	25.2	26.4	15.6	4.8	8.4	80.3
1983	3.5	14.0	17.5	18.2	34.6	18.4	5.1	6.2	82.5
1984	3.0	10.7	13.7	26.4	31.1	19.5	4.2	4.9	86.3
1985	2.9	11.0	13.9	32.1	27.1	18.6	4.2	4.1	86.1
1986	5.5	23.9	29.4	23.3	21.4	18.9	4.0	3.0	70.6
1987	3.6	11.7	15.4	33.3	30.3	14.1	5.9	1.1	84.6
1988	2.7	6.4	9.1	41.0	32.6	11.9	5.0	0.5	90.9
1989	2.9	4.7	7.6	50.5	22.5	9.9	8.5	1.0	92.4
féb.90	1.8	4.5	6.3	50.2	25.5	7.0	10.4	0.6	93.7

Período	Retorno Nominal¹	IPE²	Retorno Real
JAN.88	16,25	17,96	-1,45
FEV.	17,75	16,01	1,50
MAR.	16,06	19,28	-2.70
ABA.	19,50	17,78	1,46
MAi.	18,05	19,53	-1,24
JUN.	19,52	24,04	-3,64
JUL.	23,88	20,66	2,67
AGO.	21,89	24,01	-1,71
SET.	24,25	27,25	-2,36
OUT.	27,46	26,92	0,43
NOV.	26,19	28,79	-2,02
DEZ.	29,84	70,28	-23.75
JAN-89	22,71	3,6	18,45
FEV.	18,95	6,09	12,12
MAR.	20.41	7,31	12,21
ABA.	10.58	9,94	0,58
MAI.	10.51	24,83	-11,47
JUN.	25,77	28,76	-2,32
JUL.	31,50	29,34	1,67
AGO.	33.21	35,95	-2,02
SET.	37,39	37,62	-0,17

Centro de Economia Política Rua Araripina, 106, CEP 05603-030 São Paulo - SP, Tel. (55 11) 3816-6053 - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

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[1] *
O autor agradece ao World Institute for the Development of Economic Research - WIDER, pelo apoio a esta pesquisa. Agradece ainda os co-autores do projeto: Edward Amadeo, Tariq Baduri, José Camargo, Stephen Marglin e Jaime Ros, como também Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira e Lídia Goldenstein por seus comentários e sugestões. A responsabilidade pelo trabalho final é inteiramente do autor. Traduzido por Danielle Ardaillon.