What Have We Learned about National Development Banks? Evidence from Brazil

BARBOZA, RICARDO; PESSOA, SAMUEL; ROITMAN, FÁBIO; RIBEIRO, EDUARDO PONTUAL

doi:10.1590/0101-31572023-3467

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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 43 (3) • Jul-Sep 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572023-3467 copy

What Have We Learned about National Development Banks? Evidence from Brazil^* * The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the official position of the BNDES and FGV IBRE or UFRJ. The authors thank Sergio Lazzarini, Fabio Giambiagi, Braulio Borges, João Carlos Ferraz, Guilherme Tinoco, Daniel Grimaldi, André Sant’Anna, Luciano Machado, Maurício Furtado, Gilberto Borça Jr., Manoel Pires, Nelson Barbosa, Victor Pina and seminar participants at the Brazilian Central Bank, BNDES, IPEA, ANPEC, UFRJ, CNI and FGV IBRE.

O que aprendemos sobre os Bancos Nacionais de Desenvolvimento? Evidências do Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

There are 553 development banks in the world: 18% of these institutions have emerged since the 2008 financial crisis. There is a large theoretical literature on such institutions, but the evidence on their effectiveness is scattered. This paper provides a systematic review of causal effect studies of one of the largest and most representative development banks in the world, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). We review 48 academic papers that estimate BNDES loans and credit programs impact in several policy dimensions. In general, the evidence indicates that development banks can be an effective instrument to increase investment, exports, employment and GDP, particularly when borrowers are micro, small and medium-sized companies. The Brazilian experience also suggests that development banks can be an important tool to fight against climate change, reducing deforestation. On the other hand, evidence indicates that the greatest difficulty for these institutions is to generate positive impacts on productivity, an essential variable for economic growth. Finally, the evidence is inconclusive on political influence on development bank’s loans.

KEYWORDS:
Development banks; state-owned banks; systematic review; BNDES

Reference	BNDES instrument	Data base	Result
Vivacqua (2007Vivacqua, M. (2007). Monetary Policy and Investment in Brazil. PUC-Rio Doctoral Thesis.)	BNDES	Economática	Positive
Ribeiro and De Negri (2009Ribeiro, E. P., De Negri, J. A. (2009). Public credit use and manufacturing productivity in Brazil. In Mimeographed document. Congresso do Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).)	Public credit for innovation	PIA and PINTEC	Positive
Inoue, Lazzarini and Musacchio (2013Inoue, C. F. K. V., Lazzarini, S. G., Musacchio, A. (2013). Leviathan as a minority share-holder: Firm-level performance implications of equity purchases by the government. Academy of Management Journal, 56(6), 1775-1801.)	BNDES Stock Market	Economática	Mixed
Machado et al. (2014Machado, L; Albuquerque, B; Grimaldi, D; Santos, L. (2014). Effects Of Bndes Psi On Investment Of Brazilian Industrial Companies: Impact Estimates Based On A Matching Approach. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	PSI Finame	PIA	Positive
Lazzarini et al. (2015Lazzarini, S. G; Musacchio, A; Bandeira-de-Mello, R; Marcon, R. (2015). What do state-owned development banks do? Evidence from BNDES, 2002-09. World Development, 66, 237-253.)	Financing or Shareholding	Economática	Null
Bonomo, Brito and Martins (2015Bonomo, M; Brito, R. D; Martins, B. (2015). The after-crisis government-driven credit expansion in Brazil: A firm level analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 55, 111-134.)	BNDES Direct	Economática	Null
Machado and Roitman (2015Machado, L; Roitman, F. B. (2015). Os efeitos do PSI sobre o investimento corrente e futuro das firmas industriais. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	PSI Finame	PIA	Positive
Lavieri (2015Lavieri, B. M. (2015). Efeitos da Atuação do BNDES sobre o Investimento. EESP/FGV Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES	PIA. PAS and PAC	Mixed
Brigante (2016Brigante, P. C. (2016). Efetividade dos instrumentos de políticas públicas nos gastos privados de PD no Brasil. USP Doctoral Thesis.)	BNDES Innovation	Pintec	Null
Monteiro (2017Monteiro, G. G. (2017). Impacto da atuação do BNDES nos investimentos reais de companhias abertas durante a crise de 2008. FGV-EAESP Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES Direct	Economática	Positive
Eclache da Silva (2017Eclache Silva, W. (2017). Empréstimos do BNDES e a restrição financeira das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. USP Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES	Economática	Positive
Alves, Silva and Morais (2017Alves, P. F; Silva, L. L. M; Morais, R. L. D. (2018). Impacts of subsidized credit on the optimum level of post-crisis investment of Brazilian firms. Conference on Model-based Evidence on Innovation and Development (MEIDE).)	BNDES	Webscraping	Mixed
Machado, Martini and Gama (2017Machado, L; Martini, R. A; Gama, M. M. D. (2017). Does BNDES innovation credit boost firms’ RD expenditures? Evidence from Brazilian panel data. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	BNDES Innovation	Pintec	Positive
Cavalcanti and Vaz (2017Cavalcanti, T, Vaz, P. H. (2017). Access to long-term credit and productivity of small and medium firms: a causal evidence. Economics Letters, 150, 21-25.)	Those used by small companies	PIA	Positive
Castro (2018Castro. P. (2018). Essays on macroeconomics and monetary policy. PUC-Rio Doctoral Thesis.)	Public credit	BCB and IBGE	Null
Santos Silva (2018Santos Silva, N. D. (2018). The effect of the financial accelerator over Brazilian firms: an investment analysis with evidence from 1Q2005 to 3Q2017. EESP/FGV Professional Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES	Economática	Null
Oliveira, F. (2019Oliveira, F. N. D. (2019). Investment of Firms in Brazil: do financial restrictions, unexpected monetary shocks and BNDES play important roles? Revista Brasileira de Economia, 73(2), 235-251.)	BNDES	Serasa and Economática	Positive
Barboza and Vasconcelos (2019Barboza, R. M; Vasconcelos, G. F. (2019). Measuring the aggregate effects of the Brazilian Development Bank on investment. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 47, 223-236.)	BNDES and BNDES Finame	Monitor do PIB	Positive

Reference	Evaluated instrument	Result
CHART A: Effects on financed firms
Ribeiro and De Negri (2009Ribeiro, E. P., De Negri, J. A. (2009). Public credit use and manufacturing productivity in Brazil. In Mimeographed document. Congresso do Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).)	Public credit for innovation	Positive
Coelho and De Negri (2010Coelho, D; De Negri, J. A. (2010). Impacto do financiamento do BNDES sobre a produtividade das empresas: uma aplicação do efeito quantílico de tratamento. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	BNDES	Positive
Gonçalves (2013Gonçalves, M. J. L. (2013). Os efeitos do financiamento do BNDES sobre o lucro e o crescimento das empresas. FGV-Rio Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES nonautomatic financing	Null
Maffioli et al. (2017Maffioli, A; de Negri, J. A; Rodriguez, C. M; Vazquez-Bare, G. (2017). Public credit programmes and firm performance in Brazil. Development Policy Review, 35(5), 675-702.)	BNDES and Finep	Positive
Tabajara (2019Tabajara, R. B. (2019). Campaign Contributions and Credit: Evidence from Brazil. PUC-Rio Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES indirect financing	Positive
CHART B: Effects not restricted to financed firms
Assunção et al. (2016Assunção, J; Costa, F; Szerman, D. (2016). Local socioeconomic impacts of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE).)	Construction of hydroelectric plants	Positive
Pinto, Grimaldi and Martini (2018Pinto, G. P. (2018). Investigação sobre o comportamento dos desembolsos de bancos públicos para prefeituras: BNDES, 1997 a 2014. UnB Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES local content policy	Positive

Reference	BNDES instrument	Evaluated variable	Result
Silva (2012Silva, C. E. L. (2012). O impacto do BNDES Exim no tempo de permanência das firmas brasileiras no mercado internacional: uma análise a partir dos microdados. Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, (38), 9-35.)	BNDES Exim	No of consecutive years in which the company exports	Positive
Galetti and Hiratuka (2013Galetti, J., Hiratuka, C. (2013). Financiamento às exportações: uma avaliação dos impactos dos programas públicos brasileiros. Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 17(3), 494-516.)	BNDES Exim	Exported value	Positive
Alvarez, Prince and Kannebley (2014Alvarez, R. B; Prince, D; Kannebley Júnior, S. (2014). Financiamento a exportações de produtos manufaturados brasileiros: uma análise microeconométrica. CNI (National Brazilian Confederation of Industry) Economics Award.)	BNDES Exim	No of consecutive years in which the company exports	Positive
		No of countries to which the company exports	Positive
		Exported value per employee	Positive
Schmidt (2012Schmidt, H. F. (2012). O efeito das políticas públicas brasileiras de apoio à exportação: implicações para o desempenho exportador das firmas em uma abordagem longitudinal. PUC-Rio Doctoral Thesis.)	BNDES Exim	Exported value	Mixed
		No of products exported	Mixed
		No of countries to which the company exports	Mixed
		% of exports to countries outside Mercosur	Positive
		% of exports of medium- and high-technology products	Null
		No of exported medium and high technology products	Mixed
		Average value of exports per product	Mixed
		Average value of exports per country	Mixed
Maffioli et al. (2017Maffioli, A; de Negri, J. A; Rodriguez, C. M; Vazquez-Bare, G. (2017). Public credit programmes and firm performance in Brazil. Development Policy Review, 35(5), 675-702.)	BNDES and Finep	Exported value	Positive
	BNDES and Finep	Indicator that the company exports	Null

Reference	BNDES instrument	Analyzed Variable	Result
Barbosa-Filho (2011Barbosa Filho, D. G. (2011). Financiamento de longo prazo e o crescimento econômico da região nordeste do Brasil: uma análise através de vetores autorregressivos. UFPE-PIMES Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES	Northeast GDP	Null
Burns (2012Burns, V. A. C. (2012). Distribuição espacial dos recursos do BNDES em um contexto de redução das desigualdades regionais. UnB Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES	Municipal GDP	Positive
Wegelin (2014Wegelin, M. J. C. (2014). O impacto da política de crédito do BNDES no desenvolvimento econômico e social dos municípios brasileiros. Brazilian National Treasury Awards.)	BNDES	Municipal GDP	Positive
Assunção et al. (2016Assunção, J; Costa, F; Szerman, D. (2016). Local socioeconomic impacts of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants. Brazilian Econometric Society (SBE).)	BNDES Finem	Municipal GDP	Positive
Martini et al. (2018Martini, R. A., Jordão, M. D. F., Grimaldi, D. D. S. (2018). Avaliação de efeitos locais da construção de usinas eólicas nos municípios brasileiros: uma abordagem por controle sintético. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	BNDES Finem	Municipal GDP	Positive
Maitino (2018Maitino Neto, A. (2018). Crédito direcionado e a transmissão da política monetária: estudo do impacto dos desembolsos do BNDS na curva IS. FGV-SP Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES	Brazil output gap	Positive
Machado (2018Machado, M. S. (2018). Investimentos em infraestrutura financiados pelo BNDES e seus impactos sobre o PIB per capita regional no período 2003-2014. PUC-SP Master’s Dissertation.)	BNDES Infra	Regions GDP	Mixed
Barboza and Vasconcelos (2019Barboza, R. M; Vasconcelos, G. F. (2019). Measuring the aggregate effects of the Brazilian Development Bank on investment. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 47, 223-236.)	BNDES	Brazil GDP	Positive
Zanchi (2019Zanchi, V. V. (2019). The influence of culture on crime and the impact of national development banks on regional growth. UCB Doctoral Thesis.)	BNDES Direct and Indirect	Municipal GDP	Mixed

Reference	BNDES instrument	Evaluated variable	Result
Ribeiro and De Negri (2009Ribeiro, E. P., De Negri, J. A. (2009). Public credit use and manufacturing productivity in Brazil. In Mimeographed document. Congresso do Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).)	Public credit for innovation	TFP	Null
	Public credit for innovation	Labor productivity	Null
Coelho and De Negri (2010Coelho, D; De Negri, J. A. (2010). Impacto do financiamento do BNDES sobre a produtividade das empresas: uma aplicação do efeito quantílico de tratamento. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	BNDES	TFP	Mixed
	BNDES	Labor productivity	Positive
Araújo (2014Araújo, L. (2014). Financiamento do BNDES e desempenho de empresas brasileiras no período de 2008-2012. FECAP Master’s Dissertation.)	Finame, BNDES Automático and Finem	Labor productivity	Null
	Finame	Labor productivity	Null
Cavalcanti and Vaz (2017Cavalcanti, T, Vaz, P. H. (2017). Access to long-term credit and productivity of small and medium firms: a causal evidence. Economics Letters, 150, 21-25.)	Those used by small companies	TFP	Positive
	Those used by small companies	Labor productivity	Positive
Sousa and Ottaviano (2018Sousa, F. L; Ottaviano, G. I. (2018). Relaxing credit constraints in emerging economies: The impact of public loans on the productivity of Brazilian manufacturers. International Economics, 154, 23-47.)	BNDES Finem and BNDES Automático	TFP	Null
	BNDES Finem and BNDES Automático	Labor productivity	Null

Reference	Evaluated instrument	Variable	Result
Bouchardet, Porsse and Junior (2016Bouchardet, D. D; Porsse, A. A; Junior, R. T. (2016). Evidências sobre o impacto do Fundo Amazônia no desmatamento da Amazônia Legal Brasileira. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	Amazon Fund	Deforestation	Reduces deforestation
Assunção, Costa and Szerman (2017Assunção, J; Costa, F; Szerman, D. (2017). Power Plants and Deforestation: Recent Evidence from the Amazon. Congresso do Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).)	HPP construction	Deforestation	Mixed
Simonet et al. (2019Simonet, G., Subervie, J., Ezzine-de-Blas, D., Cromberg, M., Duchelle, A. E. (2019). Effectiveness of a REDD+ project in reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(1), 211-229.)	Amazon Fund	Deforestation	Reduces deforestation

Reference	Political connection	Instrument	Result
CHART A: Political connection of companies
Sztutman and Aldrighi (2012Sztutman, A. M; Aldrighi, D. M. (2012). Financiamento das campanhas eleitorais de 2006 por grupos econômicos e empréstimos do BNDES. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	Donation to winning candidates that ran for federal deputy	Financing	Positive
Sztutman and Aldrighi (2019Sztutman, A. M; Aldrighi, D. M. (2019). Political Connections and Access to Brazilian Development Bank’s Loans. Congresso da European Financial Management Association.)	Donation to winning candidates that ran for federal deputy	Financing	Null
Lazzarini et al. (2015Lazzarini, S. G; Musacchio, A; Bandeira-de-Mello, R; Marcon, R. (2015). What do state-owned development banks do? Evidence from BNDES, 2002-09. World Development, 66, 237-253.)	Donation to winning candidates that ran for president, governor and senator	Financing	Null
	Donation to winning candidates that ran for federal deputy	Financing	Positive
	Donation to winning candidates that ran for president, governor and senator	Shareholding	Null
	Donation to winning candidates that ran for federal deputy	Shareholding	Null
Astorino (2015Astorino, P. S. (2015). Consequências das conexões políticas para as empresas de capital aberto no Brasil: desempenho e acesso a crédito do BNDES. USP Master’s Dissertation.)	Presence in the Board of Directors of a person who helda senior management position at BNDES	Nonautomatic indirect and direct financing	Null
Lopes (2016Lopes, A. D. (2016). Financiamento de campanhas eleitorais e empréstimos do BNDES: lobby e interesses privados. UFG Master’s Dissertation.)	Donation to winning candidates that ran for federal deputy	Nonautomatic indirect and direct financing	Positive
	Donation to winning candidates that ran for president and senator	Nonautomatic indirect and direct financing	Negative
	Donation to candidates, parties and campaign committees	Nonautomatic indirect and direct financing	Negative
	Donation to candidates, parties and campaign committees of the government base	Nonautomatic indirect and direct financing	Positive
Kuronuma et al. (2018Kuronuma, C. R., Okimura, R. T., Sales, G. A. W. BNDES e Favorecimento às Empresas com Conexões Políticas. XVIII USP International Conference in Accounting.)	Donation to candidates, parties and campaign committees	Financing	Positive
Tabajara (2019Tabajara, R. B. (2019). Campaign Contributions and Credit: Evidence from Brazil. PUC-Rio Master’s Dissertation.)	Donation to candidates, parties and campaign committees at the federal level	Indirect financing by federal public banks	Positive
CHART B: Political alignment of mayors and governors
Coniaric (2014Coniaric, P. M. (2014). Os efeitos do alinhamento partidário sobre empréstimos do BNDES para os municípios brasileiros. USP-RP Master’s Dissertation in Economics.)	Mayor’s party belongs to the president’s support base	Financing to municipalities	Null
Carvalho (2014Carvalho, D. (2014). The real effects of government-owned banks: Evidence from an emerging market. The Journal of Finance, 69(2), 577-609.)	Governor’s party belongs to the president’s support base	Financing to private companies	Positive
Pinto (2018Pinto, A. R; Grimaldi, D. S; Martini, R. A. (2018). Efeitos do apoio do BNDES à aquisição de máquinas e equipamentos sobre o emprego dos fabricantes de bens de capital. National Meeting of Economics, ANPEC.)	Mayor’s party is the same as the president’s party and is different from the governor’s party	Financing to municipalities	Positive

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