Brazilian imports of natural gas in the context of Mercosur

OLIVEIRA, ADILSON DE; ARAUJO, MÁRCIO SILVA DE

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Brazilian Journal of Political Economy

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Articles • Brazil. J. Polit. Econ. 15 (4) • Oct-Dec 1995 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571995-0841 copy

Brazilian imports of natural gas in the context of Mercosur

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the possibilities of natural gas import from Argentina or Bolivia to Brazil. It is possible to verify the existence of a consumption market that may become the importation of gas attractive. More than a simple trade deal, the construction of a gas duct may help to improve the existence of a future common market: the Mercosur.

KEYWORDS:
Mercosur; economic integration; international trade; natural gas

Países	Reservas (bilhões m3)	Produção (bilhões m3/ano)	R/P
Países	Reservas (bilhões m3)	Produção (bilhões m3/ano)	(anos)
Argentina	744	23,6	31,5
Bolívia	118	5,9	20,0
Brasil	115	5,3	21,7
Total	977	34,8	28,1

			(10⁶ m³ /dia)
	Produção total		Disponibilidade
	1995	2000	1995	2000
HB
Brasil	34,8	33,8	20,5	20,6
N +NE	16,5	16,6	11,4	10,5
S+SE	18,3	17,2	9,1	10, 1
H2
Brasil	40,3	66,7	24,1	44,9
N +NE	19,4	31,2	13,1	22,1
S+SE	20,9	35,5	11,0	22,8

Traçado
	Mercado teórico		Mercado provável
	1995	2000	1995	2000
	(10⁶ m³/d)		(10⁶ m³/d)
A1	10,8	12,2	4,3	8,8
A2	9,3	10,9	3,7	8,0
B	9,3	10,9	3,7	7,9

Taxa de cresc. do cons.: 3% a.a.
	Taxa de desconto(%)
Traçado	5	8	10	15
A1 c/r	0,94	1,19	1,39	1,96
A1 s/r	1,02	1,29	1,50	2,13
A2	0,70	0,89	1,03	1,46
B	0,90	1, 14	1,32	1,87
Taxa de cresc. do cons.: 5% a.a.
	Taxa de desconto(%)
Traçado	5	8	10	15
A1 c/r	0,87	1, 11	1,30	1,86
A1 s/r	0,93	1, 19	1,40	2,02
A2	0,65	0,83	0,97	1,39
B	0,83	1,05	1,23	1,77
Taxa de cresc. do cons.: 7% a.a.
	Taxa de desconto(%)
Traçado	5	8	10	15
A1 c/r	0,81	1,04	1,22	1,77
A1 s/r	0,87	1, 11	1,31	1,91
A2	0,61	0,78	0,91	1,32
B	0,79	1,00	1, 17	1,69

Traçado
	Diâmetro	Nºest.	Cap. transp.	Extens.^(a)	lnvest.^(b)
	(pol)	compres.	(10⁶m³/d)	(km)	(bil.US$)
A1 s/r	28	20	26,7	2.112	2,017
A1 c/r	28/26/24	23	26,7	2.112	1,774
A2	26	15	22,2	1.305	1,159
B	26	20	22,2	1.540	1,512

	Taxa de desconto(%)
Traçado	5	8	10	15
A1 c/r	116	114	114	111
A1 s/r	117	116	115	112
A2	115	114	113	111
B	114	114	113	111

	Taxa de desconto(%)
Traçado	5	8	10	15
A1 c/r	100	128	149	214
A1 s/r	100	128	151	217
A2	100	128	149	214
B	100	127	148	213

Traçado A1
Ano refer.: 1995
Taxa de desconto(%)	Taxa (% a.a.)	OC			GN		GN
Taxa de desconto(%)	Taxa (% a.a.)	1	2	3	1	2	3	$ const.
5	3,0	3,52	4,13	2,76	3,34	3,83	2,99	2,67
	5,0	3,59	4,21	2,75	3,38	3,86	2,99	2,67
	7,0	3,66	4,29	2,73	3,41	3,88	2,98	2,67
8	3,0	3,41	3,98	2,79	3,27	3,79	3,00	2,67
	5,0	3,48	4,06	2,77	3,31	3,81	3,00	2,67
	7,0	3,54	4,15	2,75	3,35	3,83	2,99	2,67
10	3,0	3,34	3,89	2,80	3,23	3,75	3,01	2,67
	5,0	3,40	3,97	2,79	3,27	3,78	3,00	2,67
	7,0	3,46	4,05	2,77	3,30	3,80	2,99
15	3,0	3,18	3,68	2,82	3,14	3,67	3,01	2,67
	5,0	3,24	3,75	2,81	3,17	3,69	3,01	2,67
	7,0	3,29	3,82	2,80	3,20	3,71	3,00	2,67

Taxa	5%
Traçado	Taxa		oc			GN		GN
	(% a.a.)	1	2	3	1	2	3	$ const.
A1 c/r	3,0	2,58	3,19	1,82	2,40	2,89	2,05	1,73
	5,0	2,72	3,34	1,88	2,51	2,99	2,12	1,80
	7,0	2,85	3,48	1,92	2,60	3,07	2,17	1,86
A1 s/r	3,0	2,50	3,11	1,74	2,32	2,81	1,97	1,65
	5,0	2,66	3,28	1,82	2,45	2,93	2,06	1,74
	7,0	2,79	3,42	1,86	2,54	3,01	2,11	1,80
A2	3,0	2,83	3,43	2,06	2,64	3,14	2,30	1,97
	5,0	2,95	3,57	2,10	2,73	3,21	2,34	2,02
	7,0	3,06	3,69	2,12	2,81	3,27	2,37	2,06
B	3,0	2,63	3,23	1,86	2,44	2,94	2,10	1,77
	5,0	2,77	3,39	1,92	2,55	3,03	2,16	1,84
	7,0	2,87	3,51	1,94	2,63	3,09	2,19	1,88
Taxa	8%
Traçado	Taxa		oc			GN		GN
	(% a,a,)	1	2	3	1	2	3	$ const,
A1 c/r	3,0	2,22	2,79	1,60	2,08	2,60	1,81	1,48
	5,0	2,37	2,95	1,66	2,20	2,70	1,89	1,56
	7,0	2,50	3,11	1,71	2,31	2,79	1,95	1,63
A1 s/r	3,0	2,12	2,69	1,50	1,98	2,50	1,71	1,38
	5,0	2,29	2,87	1,58	2,12	2,62	1,81	1,48
	7,0	2,43	3,04	1,64	2,24	2,72	1,88	1,56
A2	3,0	2,52	3,10	1,90	2,39	2,90	2,11	1,78
	5,0	2,65	3,24	1,94	2,48	2,98	2,17	1,84
	7,0	2,77	3,37	1,97	2,57	3,05	2,21	1,89
B	3,0	2,27	2,85	1,65	2,14	2,65	1,86	1,53
	5,0	2,43	3,02	1,72	2,26	2,76	1,95	1,62
	7,0	2,55	3,15	1,75	2,35	2,83	1,99	1,67
Taxa	10%
Traçado	Taxa		oc			GN		GN
	(% a,a,)	1	2	3	1	2	3	$ const,
A1 c/r	3,0	1,95	2,50	1,41	1,84	2,36	1,62	1,28
	5,0	2,10	2,67	1,49	1,97	2,48	1,70	1,37
	7,0	2,24	2,83	1,55	2,08	2,58	1,77	1,45
A1 s/r	3,0	1,84	2,39	1,30	1,73	2,25	1,51	1,17
	5,0	2,00	2,57	1,39	1,87	2,38	1,60	1,27
	7,0	2,15	2,74	1,46	1,99	2,49	1,68	1,36
A2	3,0	2,31	2,87	1,77	2,21	2,73	1,98	1,64
	5,0	2,44	3,01	1,82	2,30	2,81	2,03	1,70
	7,0	2,56	3,14	1,86	2,40	2,89	2,08	1,76
B	3,0	2,02	2,58	1,48	1,92	2,44	1,69	1,35
	5,0	2,18	2,75	1,56	2,04	2,55	1,77	1,44
	7,0	2,30	2,88	1,60	2,14	2,63	1,82	1,50
Taxa	15%
Traçado	Taxa		oc			GN		GN
	(% a,a,)	1	2	3	1	2	3	$ const,
A1 c/r	3,0	1,22	1,72	0,86	1,18	1,71	1,05	0,71
	5,0	1,38	1,89	0,95	1,31	1,83	1,15	0,81
	7,0	1,52	2,05	1,03	1,43	1,94	1,23	0,90
A1 s/r	3,0	1,05	1,55	0,69	1,01	1,54	0,88	0,54
	5,0	1,22	1,73	0,79	1,15	1,67	0,99	0,65
	7,0	1,38	1,91	0,89	1,29	1,80	1,09	0,76
A2	3,0	1,73	2,23	1,36	1,68	2,21	1,55	1,21
	5,0	1,85	2,37	1,42	1,78	2,31	1,62	1,28
	7,0	1,97	2,51	1,48	1,88	2,40	1,68	1,35
B	3,0	1,32	1,82	0,95	1,27	1,80	1,14	0,80
	5,0	1,47	1,98	1,04	1,40	1,93	1,24	0,90
	7,0	1,60	2,13	1,11	1,51	2,03	1,31	0,98

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E-mail: cecilia.heise@bjpe.org.br

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[TFN1] Fonte: Olade (1991OLADE (1991). Energia en Cifras, version nº 3. SIEE - Sistema de Informacion Economica Energetica, Quito. ).