Financial budget adjustment and public debt carrying cost in Brazil 2002-2021

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a decomposition of the net interest paid by the Brazilian government, in 2002-2021, dividing the expenditure in four parts: the real-interest-rate cost, the inflation cost, the carry cost of fixed-income assets and exchange-rate swaps. The analysis also details the carry cost in terms of the government’s main financial assets: (international reserves and loans to the BNDES), showing that the financial adjustment of 2016-2021 reduced the equilibrium primary balance in around 2.5% of GDP.

KEYWORDS:
Brazil; fiscal adjustment; net interest paid by the government