Os impactos regionais das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade agrícola familiar e patronal no Brasil

Tanure, Tarik Marques do Prado; Domingues, Edson Paulo; Magalhães, Aline Souza

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Brasil

Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

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Brasil

Español English

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Sumário

ARTICLE • Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural 62 (1) • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2022.262515 copiar

Os impactos regionais das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade agrícola familiar e patronal no Brasil

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumo:

O artigo analisa os impactos regionais das mudanças climáticas sobre a produtividade agrícola por cultivo da agricultura familiar e patronal no Brasil, utilizando os cenários RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2014), entre os anos de 2021 e 2050. A estratégia metodológica consiste na estimação em cross section de uma função de produção em que os resultados em termos de produtividade agrícola são determinados por fatores climáticos, geográficos e produtivos. O estudo contribui para a literatura, ao desagregar a produção agrícola em familiar e patronal, indicando a magnitude e a direção dos impactos, por cultivo e por Unidade da Federação no Brasil, pais de grande dimensão territorial e relevante e heterogênea produção agrícola. Os resultados indicaram que a agricultura familiar apresentaria maior sensibilidade, e portanto, maior vulnerabilidade ao fenômeno. Em média, os efeitos seriam negativos nas regiões Norte/Nordeste e para mandioca, milho, feijão e soja, com possíveis impactos no desmatamento e na oferta de alimentos. Esperam-se ganhos de produtividade na região Sul e para o cultivo de cana-de-açúcar e soja. A deterioração da segurança alimentar dos agricultores vulneráveis e as disparidades regionais poderiam aumentar no Brasil.

Palavras-chave:
mudanças climáticas; produtividade agrícola; agricultura familiar; segurança alimentar

Control Variables	Dependent Variable: log (Aggregate Agricultural Productivity)
Control Variables	Step (3)	Step (2)	Step (1)
High Temperature	-3.088***	-3.363***	-3.376***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.382)	(0.465)	(0.484)
Low Temperature	1.427***	1.519***	1.520***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.127)	(0.142)	(0.142)
Squared High Temperature	0.060***	0.066***	0.066***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.010)
Squared Low Temperature	-0.029***	-0.031***	-0.031***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
High Precipitation	0.013***	0.014***	0.014***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Low Precipitation	0.005***	0.003	0.002
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Squared High Precipitation	-0.000***	-0.000***	-0.000***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Squared Low Precipitation	0.000	0.000	0.000
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
Geographical Characteristics	Yes	Yes	Yes
Primary Factors	Yes	Yes	No
Social Capital	Yes	No	No
Other	Yes	No	No
Observations	5128	5358	5358
Adjusted R-Square	0.432	0.390	0.389

Region	Federation Unit (FU)	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Region	Federation Unit (FU)	Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval		Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval
North	Acre (AC)	-17.7%	0.07	-20.7%	-14.7%	-20.9%	0.08	-24.4%	-17.4%
	Amapá (AP)	-83.5%	0.05	-86.4%	-80.6%	-83.1%	0.04	-85.7%	-80.5%
	Amazonas (AM)	-16.4%	0.25	-23.6%	-9.1%	-16.4%	0.23	-23.3%	-9.5%
	Pará (PA)	-46.2%	0.23	-50.1%	-42.3%	-43.6%	0.27	-48.2%	-39.0%
	Rondônia (RO)	-20.3%	0.05	-21.7%	-18.9%	-22.2%	0.06	-23.9%	-20.5%
	Roraima (RR)	-53.6%	0.10	-59.1%	-48.1%	-51.7%	0.10	-57.5%	-45.8%
	Tocantins (TO)	-21.8%	0.16	-24.7%	-18.9%	-16.4%	0.18	-19.8%	-13.0%
Northeast	Alagoas (AL)	-46.8%	0.09	-48.8%	-44.8%	-49.4%	0.09	-51.3%	-47.5%
	Bahia (BA)	-49.5%	0.10	-50.5%	-48.5%	-51.5%	0.08	-52.3%	-50.6%
	Ceará (CE)	-5.4%	0.30	-9.7%	-1.1%	-19.8%	0.27	-23.7%	-15.8%
	Maranhão (MA)	-19.0%	0.30	-23.2%	-14.9%	-22.5%	0.28	-26.4%	-18.7%
	Paraíba (PB)	-39.6%	0.10	-40.9%	-38.3%	-46.5%	0.08	-47.5%	-45.4%
	Pernambuco (PE)	-42.3%	0.10	-43.7%	-40.8%	-47.6%	0.07	-48.5%	-46.6%
	Piauí (PI)	-7.5%	0.28	-11.3%	-3.7%	-17.3%	0.27	-21.0%	-13.7%
	Rio Grande do Norte (RN)	-24.1%	0.17	-26.8%	-21.4%	-34.9%	0.14	-37.2%	-32.6%
	Sergipe (SE)	-52.8%	0.14	-56.2%	-49.4%	-53.2%	0.12	-56.1%	-50.3%
Southeast	Espírito Santo (ES)	-13.7%	0.60	-27.4%	0.0%	-12.7%	0.54	-25.0%	-0.4%
	Minas Gerais (MG)	-26.2%	0.21	-27.7%	-24.8%	-26.0%	0.25	-27.7%	-24.3%
	Rio de Janeiro (RJ)	48.8%	0.70	34.1%	63.6%	34.0%	0.56	22.0%	46.0%
	São Paulo (SP)	66.9%	0.48	63.1%	70.8%	104.7%	0.77	98.4%	111.0%
Midwest	Goiás (GO)	-30.8%	0.18	-33.3%	-28.2%	-26.7%	0.24	-30.1%	-23.3%
	Mato Grosso (MT)	-4.3%	0.28	-9.3%	0.6%	5.2%	0.37	-1.3%	11.7%
	Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)	121.2%	0.71	104.8%	137.7%	232.4%	1.09	207.2%	257.6%
South	Paraná (PR)	144.1%	0.99	134.2%	154.0%	210.5%	1.71	193.4%	227.6%
	Rio Grande do Sul (RS)	87.5%	0.74	80.8%	94.3%	126.8%	1.05	117.2%	136.3%
	Santa Catarina (SC)	121.5%	0.72	112.9%	130.1%	154.6%	0.91	143.7%	165.6%

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-42%	-18%	-	-23%	-	-31%	-2%	-6%	10%	4%	92%	18%	-	-13%	-26%	-22%	-13%	-	-	-	-25%
AP	7%	-	-	30%*	-	-57%	14%	-	-	64%	-	8%	-	-56%	-	-73%	-72%	-	-	-	-59%
AM	-23%	11%	-	47%	-	-31%	14%	-	23%	8%	97%	-19%	-	-11%	-56%	-26%	-22%	-	-	-	24%
PA	-14%	-38%	-47%	3-*	-	-53%	10%	-74%	19%	14%	22%	7%	-14%	4%	42%	-55%	-23%	-23%	33%	-	-14%
RO	-54%	-9%	-	31%	-	-41%	1%	-	37%	7%	92%	14%	73%	-3%	-	-43%	-14%	-42%	-43%	-	-10%
RR	11%*	-59%	-	30%*	-	-69%	-66%	-	-76%	42%	-	22%	-	9%	-	-54%	-	-	27%*	-	43%
TO	-18%	-	-42%	-74%	-	89%	-7%	-	75%	2%	55%*	-47%	-	30%	-	-53%	-8%	-24%	-	-	40%*
AL	2-	-44%	-12%	-21%	-	-56%	5%	-71%	-18%	1%	-42%	34%	-	-28%	-49%	-29%	-37%	-	13%	-	-22%
BA	2%	-46%	-37%	-79%	-70%	-22%	22%	-77%	40%	17%	-39%	-17%	-41%	-33%	-29%	-29%	-41%	-27%	41%	-	9%
EC	-3%	-35%	1%	-58%	-	-28%	6%	13%	18%	2%	-8%	1%	23%	-1%	-25%	27%	-8%	-	4%	-	-15%
MA	1%	-46%	68%	11%	-	9%	-2%	-	22%	7%	-	-6%	-	-4%	-	-	-13%	-33%	-	-	36%
PB	-14%	-35%	-27%	-77%	-68%	-32%	3%	-34%	8%	-4%	-2%	18%	45%*	-20%	-53%	-20%	-30%	-	6%	-	-1%
PE	-3%	-34%	-37%	-76%	-50%	-14%	22%	-78%	45%	5%	-23%	35%	-7%	-27%	-44%	-31%	-36%	-8%	27%	-	-11%
PI	28%	-	30%	46%	-	63%	20%	-55%	63%	3%	-	-20%	-	10%	-28%	-8%	-9%	-36%	-5%	-	63%
RN	2%	-23%	-15%	-71%	-	-56%	2%	49%	13%	-9%	-	24%	45%*	-13%	-47%	-16%	-22%	11%	-4%	-96%	-26%
IF	23%	-	36%	-61%	-	-52%	-4%	-	-24%	-	-49%	26%	-1%	-31%	-53%	-33%	-45%	-	66%	-	-33%
ES	-36%	-28%	-	-46%	-57%	-14%	-32%	-	47%	15%	-42%	7%	-56%	-35%	-	21%	-45%	-	24%	-	-28%
MG	-26%	-18%	-	-16%	-48%	4%	5%	-51%	98%	19%	3%	-7%	-47%	-30%	-16%	-29%	-30%	-40%	-5%	-	9%
RJ	-44%	-27%	-	16%	-	2%	-32%	-	-	18%	-31%	11%	-43%	-38%	-	20%	-29%	-	-12%	-	-38%
SP	-58%	68%	-	-55%	100%	32%*	-59%	3%	69%	7%	52%	-46%	-39%	4%	66%*	-25%	19%	-11%	-47%	43%*	40%*
GO	6%	-21%	-	-3%	-	25%	77%	-	96%	8%	55%*	-22%	81%	11%	-11%	-47%	-19%	-40%	-68%	-	95%
MT	-62%	8%	-53%	-11%	-	-	-25%	-20%	50%	1%	55%*	-43%	-	19%	-	-55%	3%	-46%	-27%	-	40%*
MS	-79%	45%*	-	-9-	-	32%*	-55%	-40%	48%*	6%	55%*	-74%	-36%	13%*	-	-63%	29%	2%	-55%	43%*	40%*
PR	-70%	45%*	-2%	-54%	16%	32%*	13%	44%	48%*	4%	36%	-52%	-1%	-10%	100%	-26%	19%	1%	-35%	43%*	40%*
RS	-57%	93%	-	-17%	-55%	57%	15%*	-	86%	-4%	58%	-38%	-9%	6%	38%	16%	17%	5%	-39%	43%*	40%*
SC	-75%	45%*	-	-37%	-11%	41%	15%*	-	96%	-9%	41%	-29%	2%	-14%	83%	46%	6%	4%	-41%	43%*	40%*

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-51%	-16%	-	-49%	-	-26%	-9%	10%	23%	-1%	69%*	19%	-	-8%	-5%	-29%	-9%	-	-	-	1%
AP	3%	-	-	39%	-	-43%	2%	-	-	61%	-	-3%	-	-51%	-	-76%	-70%	-	-	-	-38%
AM	-28%	21%	-	27%	-	-21%	19%	-	34%	4%	69%*	-17%	-	2%	-36%	-30%	-17%	-	-	-	46%
PA	-20%	-24%	-63%	23%*	-	-26%	-10%	-73%	43%	16%	67%	-13%	-22%	15%	-22%	-63%	-22%	-27%	25%	-	49%
RO	-61%	-2%	-	-15%	-	-31%	-11%	-	57%	2%	69%*	7%	88%	7%	-	-52%	-8%	-51%	-39%	-	53%
RR	70%	-57%	-	23%*	-	-76%	-73%	-	-78%	29%	-	44%	-	21%	-	-56%	16%	-	54%*	-	44%*
TO	-42%	-	-51%	-83%	-	54%*	-40%	-	56%*	6%	69%*	-56%	-	49%	-	-65%	-4%	-36%	-	-	44%*
AL	-31%	-48%	-32%	-67%	-	-61%	-10%	-87%	2%	8%	-62%	61%	-	-48%	-16%	-27%	-46%	-	88%	-	-58%
BA	-48%	-46%	-54%	-88%	51%*	-37%	8%	-92%	75%	22%	-58%	-3%	-76%	-51%	19%	-31%	-50%	-44%	54%*	-	-32%
EC	-7%	-44%	-37%	-73%	-	-9%	17%	-51%	50%	11%	-23%	2%	-57%	-19%	44%	19%	-22%	-	65%	-	-27%
MA	-6%	-48%	-44%	-28%	-	72%	-1%	-	58%	14%	-	-25%	-	-3%	-	-20%	-20%	-48%	-	-	44%*
PB	-38%	-49%	-33%	-85%	51%*	-30%	-3%	-76%	35%	5%	-37%	33%	-25%	-41%	-20%	-16%	-41%	-	76%	-	-33%
PE	-40%	-39%	-48%	-88%	51%*	-25%	10%	-92%	92%	10%	-47%	50%	-63%	-47%	-19%	-32%	-47%	-33%	54%*	-	-43%
PI	-4%	-	16%	3%	-	54%*	-3%	-83%	56%*	11%	-	-34%	-	-4%	19%	-22%	-18%	-50%	58%	-	98%
RN	-18%	-36%	-24%	-87%	-	-50%	-3%	-38%	47%	-	-	36%	-5%	-33%	-11%	-14%	-33%	-13%	63%	11%	-46%
IF	-33%	-	-1%	-77%	-	-60%	-12%	-	-6%	7%	-68%	55%	-61%	-50%	-17%	-31%	-51%	-	54%*	-	-64%
ES	-71%	-34%	-	-68%	70%	-33%	-38%	-	96%	26%	-49%	28%	-75%	-49%	-	4%	-53%	-	60%	-	-55%
MG	-48%	-19%	-	-27%	-28%	9%	-16%	-83%	56%*	27%	-4%	-2%	-68%	-45%	7%	-35%	-35%	-50%	46%	-	17%
RJ	-68%	-34%	-	-36%	-	-13%	-37%	-	-	29%	-38%	29%	-69%	-52%	-	1%	-42%	-	5%	-	-62%
SP	-76%	22%*	-	-73%	51%*	54%*	-74%	-21%	56%*	13%	94%	-59%	-50%	5%	41%*	-40%	22%	-15%	-53%	11%*	44%*
GO	-26%	-16%	-	-42%	-	58%	57%	-	56%*	10%	69%*	-31%	12%	-	35%	-57%	-18%	-48%	-65%	-	44%*
MT	-72%	23%	-65%	-24%	-	66%	-44%	-11%	71%	-1%	69%*	-54%	-	39%	-	-65%	16%	-54%	-22%	-	44%*
MS	-89%	22%*	-	-96%	-	54%*	-72%	-48%	56%*	1%	69%*	-82%	-40%	16%*	-	-73%	55%	10%	-61%	11%*	44%*
PR	-82%	22%*	-18%	-70%	31%	54%*	-5%	14%	56%*	7%	45%	-63%	-13%	-12%	95%	-43%	22%	3%	-42%	11%*	44%*
RS	-79%	22%*	-	-29%	-58%	73%	91%	-	98%	-	84%	-47%	-23%	7%	42%	-	17%	9%	-49%	11%*	44%*
SC	-89%	22%*	-	-46%	-18%	45%	91%	-	56%*	-3%	55%	-34%	-7%	-18%	66%	25%	1%	3%	-51%	11%*	44%*

Control Variables	Dependent Variable: log (Aggregate Agricultural Productivity)
Control Variables	Step (3)	Step (2)	Step (1)
High Temperature	-2.269***	-2.206***	-2.294***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.338)	(0.338)	(0.343)
Low Temperature	0.837***	0.907***	0.984***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.149)	(0.135)	(0.131)
Squared High Temperature	0.0463***	0.0448***	0.0466***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.00699)	(0.00700)	(0.00713)
Squared Low Temperature	-0.0206***	-0.0220***	-0.0239***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.00310)	(0.00284)	(0.00280)
High Precipitation	0.0115***	0.0109***	0.0118***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.00240)	(0.00243)	(0.00240)
Low Precipitation	-0.00673**	-0.00876***	-0.00774***
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.00273)	(0.00268)	(0.00276)
Squared High Precipitation	-0.0000229***	-0.0000209***	-0.0000235***
(Average Spring and Summer)	(0.00000560)	(0.00000564)	(0.00000562)
Squared Low Precipitation	0.0000233**	0.0000320***	0.0000283**
(Average Autumn and Winter)	(0.0000110)	(0.0000108)	(0.0000111)
Geographical Characteristics	Yes	Yes	Yes
Primary Factors	Yes	Yes	No
Social Capital	Yes	No	No
Other	Yes	No	No
Observations	5119	5324	5324
Adjusted R-Square	0.293	0.266	0.261

Region	Federation Unit (FU)	RCP 4.5				RCP 8.5
Region	Federation Unit (FU)	Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval		Mean	Sd	95% confidence interval
North	Acre (AC)	-14.1%	0.02	-15.1%	-13.0%	-12.8%	0.03	-13.9%	-11.6%
	Amapá (AP)	-65.3%	0.08	-70.3%	-60.3%	-65.1%	0.06	-69.3%	-61.0%
	Amazonas (AM)	-15.4%	0.24	-22.9%	-7.9%	-13.1%	0.22	-20.1%	-6.1%
	Pará (PA)	-28.5%	0.18	-31.5%	-25.4%	-27.8%	0.23	-31.8%	-23.9%
	Rondônia (RO)	-14.2%	0.10	-16.9%	-11.5%	-10.1%	0.12	-13.4%	-6.8%
	Roraima (RR)	-54.8%	0.12	-61.6%	-48.0%	-50.4%	0.17	-59.6%	-41.2%
	Tocantins (TO)	5.5%	0.14	3.0%	8.0%	4.2%	0.18	0.9%	7.5%
Northeast	Alagoas (AL)	-14.6%	0.17	-18.0%	-11.1%	-36.1%	0.12	-38.5%	-33.8%
	Bahia (BA)	-35.0%	0.06	-35.6%	-34.4%	-47.4%	0.04	-47.8%	-47.0%
	Ceará (CE)	4.3%	0.21	1.2%	7.4%	-18.8%	0.18	-21.4%	-16.3%
	Maranhão (MA)	-10.0%	0.11	-11.6%	-8.4%	-21.1%	0.11	-22.7%	-19.6%
	Paraíba (PB)	-4.8%	0.10	-6.1%	-3.4%	-27.7%	0.08	-28.8%	-26.7%
	Pernambuco (PE)	-26.8%	0.13	-28.7%	-24.9%	-41.6%	0.11	-43.1%	-40.0%
	Piauí (PI)	-12.6%	0.17	-15.0%	-10.3%	-27.5%	0.14	-29.4%	-25.5%
	Rio Grande do Norte (RN)	-7.2%	0.15	-9.6%	-4.9%	-30.2%	0.10	-31.8%	-28.7%
	Sergipe (SE)	-27.0%	0.10	-29.4%	-24.6%	-40.8%	0.07	-42.4%	-39.1%
Southeast	Espírito Santo (ES)	-12.9%	0.24	-18.2%	-7.6%	-30.6%	0.17	-34.3%	-26.8%
	Minas Gerais (MG)	-21.1%	0.18	-22.3%	-19.9%	-24.2%	0.24	-25.9%	-22.6%
	Rio de Janeiro (RJ)	22.3%	0.30	15.7%	28.8%	-1.6%	0.23	-6.5%	3.2%
	São Paulo (SP)	26.6%	0.31	24.1%	29.1%	48.0%	0.50	44.0%	52.0%
Midwest	Goiás (GO)	-15.9%	0.15	-18.1%	-13.8%	-9.3%	0.23	-12.5%	-6.1%
	Mato Grosso (MT)	-3.2%	0.19	-6.4%	0.0%	7.6%	0.27	3.0%	12.3%
	Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)	77.1%	0.46	66.8%	87.4%	151.6%	0.74	135.0%	168.3%
South	Paraná (PR)	49.2%	0.52	44.0%	54.3%	76.9%	0.89	67.9%	85.8%
	Rio Grande do Sul (RS)	33.5%	0.26	31.2%	35.9%	49.7%	0.41	46.0%	53.4%
	Santa Catarina (SC)	24.5%	0.32	20.6%	28.3%	26.6%	0.36	22.3%	30.9%

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-61%	-9%	-	-71%	-	19%	1%	-	4%	3%	-	2%	-	-23%	-1%	-46%	-10%	-	-	-	7%
AP	-	-	-	-68%	-	-24%	34%*	-	-	-10%	-	-	-	-	-	-75%	-64%	-	-	-	32%*
AM	-37%	12%	-	50%*	-	-10%	91%	-	-	-6%	-	-12%	-	-20%	-	-33%	-14%	-	-	-	-24%
PA	-22%	-45%	49%*	46%	-	-29%	20%	-	-13%	-11%	-44%	13%	-	-1%	-41%	-59%	-34%	-9%	-77%	-	19%
RO	-80%	-	-	-7-	-	2%	7%	-	-59%	-3%	-	8%	-	-23%	-	-61%	-28%	-1%	21%	-	10%
RR	37%*	-	-	50%*	-	-39%	-62%	-	-	-12%	-	14%	-	-21%	-	-51%	-48%	-35%	-	-	32%*
TO	-37%	-	-97%	-35%	-	30%*	-59%	-	19%	-13%	-	58%	-	-9%	-	-10%	-49%	-6%	-	-	64%
AL	37%*	-	-17%	-46%	-	-52%	66%	-63%	-34%	-10%	18%	-11%	-	-31%	-23%	-35%	-19%	-	-	-	32%*
BA	24%	-34%	-11%	-44%	-	5%	34%*	-87%	25%	18%	-89%	5%	70%	-39%	28%	-27%	-51%	-15%	-20%	-	-32%
EC	10%	-32%	49%*	50%*	-	-35%	18%	47%*	-41%	-2%	-	-7%	27%	-	93%	2%	7%	-9%	40%	-	-20%
MA	-12%	-	59%	-21%	-	46%	1%	-	12%	-3%	-	38%	-	-7%	-	14%	-29%	-9%	-	-	37%
PB	-2%	-6%	-4%	-42%	79%	-3%	61%	-40%	16%	-8%	-22%	-7%	8%	-25%	-36%	-29%	-12%	-	54%*	14%	-14%
PE	14%	-15%	-35%	-59%	-13%	12%	34%*	-85%	24%	7%	12%	2%	45%	-35%	-	-33%	-22%	-	90%	-	-20%
PI	60%	-10%	-41%	88%	-	55%	-	-62%	-11%	1%	-	-4%	-	-5%	-	21%	-30%	-12%	-28%	-	-12%
RN	28%	-	39%	-	-	-37%	34%*	1%	-	-10%	-	-9%	-34%	-14%	-35%	-31%	10%	-	68%	12%	36%
IF	88%	-	-	-35%	-	-45%	34%*	-	-42%	-6%	-18%	-13%	-	-38%	-36%	-34%	-24%	-	-	-	-9%
ES	-38%	-21%	-	43%	15%	-5%	-65%	-	38%	12%	-66%	-2%	38%*	-49%	-	4%	-38%	-	-13%	-	-23%
MG	-21%	-12%	-	-48%	44%*	52%	-63%	-28%	24%	-1%	26%	26%	-54%	-31%	-25%	-29%	-43%	-4%	-44%	84%	-19%
RJ	-48%	-33%	-	13%	-	14%	-59%	-	-	14%	-23%	-13%	-	-29%	-	-7%	-21%	-	-53%	-	-29%
SP	-59%	15%	-	-43%	44%*	30%*	-97%	94%	62%	11%	-21%	43%	-7%	-	61%*	23%	-35%	10%	-40%	5%	76%
GO	-16%	-25%	-	-57%	-	60%	77%	-39%	-8%	-2%	-9%	38%	-93%	-32%	-	-26%	-47%	-4%	-52%	75%	2%
MT	-84%	4%	-	67%	-	30%*	-63%	-31%	-41%	-10%	19%*	70%	-	-31%	-	-57%	-29%	1%	51%	-	32%*
MS	-86%	85%	-	-12%	-	30%*	-97%	-59%	54%	-26%	-	28%*	-	11%	-	35%	-63%	4%	-	43%*	32%*
PR	-82%	71%	-35%	-8%	44%*	30%*	-85%	-14%	29%*	-17%	-12%	58%	38%*	7%	61%*	47%	-39%	14%	54%*	74%	40%
RS	-47%	-	-	-15%	40%	-10%	3%	-	29%*	-4%	-20%	22%	38%*	18%	61%*	77%	-16%	12%	54%*	36%	-17%
SC	-80%	-	-	41%	-36%	-19%	-41%	-	29%*	24%	-20%	-2%	38%*	9%	61%*	-	-13%	16%	54%*	-2%	-45%

FU / Sector	Banana	Coffee	Cashew Nuts	Orange	Grape	Others. Perm.	Pineapple	Herbaceous Cotton	Peanut	Rice and Cereals	Potato	Sugarcane	Onion	Beans	Tobacco	Cassava	Maize	Soybeans	Tomato	Wheat	Others. Temp.
AC	-70%	-1%	-	-86%	-	58%	-22%	-	13%	-1%	-	14%	-	-24%	46%*	-51%	-16%	-	-	-	32%
AP	-	-	-	-78%	-	1%	44%*	-	-	-12%	-	-	-	-	-	-75%	-69%	-	-	-	33%*
AM	-42%	26%	-	48%	-	5%	31%	-	-	-10%	-	-2%	-	-19%	-	-37%	-22%	-	-	-	-6%
PA	-33%	-37%	-16%	6%	-	10%	-38%	-	-24%	-9%	-70%	36%	-	-16%	-70%	-60%	-50%	-8%	-78%	-	19%
RO	-85%	10%	-	-86%	-	44%	-27%	-	-58%	-8%	-	25%	-	-24%	-	-65%	-36%	-	30%	-	48%
RR	17%*	-	-	41%*	-	-25%	-72%	-	-	-20%	-	22%	-	-14%	-	-58%	-47%	-35%	-	-	33%*
TO	-66%	-	-99%	-56%	-	24%*	-87%	-	4%	-12%	-	92%	-	-18%	-	-25%	-63%	-5%	-	-	33%*
AL	27%	-	62%*	-53%	-	-36%	34%	-55%	-32%	7%	54%	-12%	-	-49%	2%	-54%	-25%	-	-	-	29%
BA	-48%	-38%	62%*	-58%	-	23%	72%	-89%	23%	30%	-87%	1%	53%*	-55%	91%	-54%	-57%	-16%	-18%	-	-41%
EC	-1%	-41%	-20%	48%	-	-9%	-3%	88%*	-23%	14%	-	-2%	66%	-22%	46%*	-11%	-21%	-10%	-9%	-	-35%
MA	-33%	-	-46%	-34%	-	24%*	-49%	-	16%	6%	-	61%	-	-19%	-	-	-49%	-10%	-	-	58%
PB	-35%	-23%	70%	-58%	-78%	22%	17%	-66%	23%	9%	-15%	-8%	82%	-45%	37%	-43%	-32%	-	56%*	81%	-31%
PE	-33%	-19%	50%	-62%	-92%	42%	86%	-84%	42%	23%	9%	-1%	53%*	-53%	-	-51%	-36%	-	77%	-	-35%
PI	6%	-18%	-26%	80%	-	24%*	-	-81%	-10%	10%	-	13%	-	-25%	-	5%	-50%	-14%	-62%	-	-8%
RN	-4%	-	65%	-	-	-18%	58%	-27%	-	5%	-	-9%	-8%	-35%	37%	-43%	-14%	-	8%	81%	-11%
IF	-17%	-	-	-53%	-	-35%	44%*	-	-42%	14%	32%	-18%	-	-53%	-16%	-55%	-28%	-	-	-	-29%
ES	-77%	-30%	-	69%	-77%	6%	-68%	-	37%	25%	-62%	-9%	53%*	-61%	-	-42%	-46%	-	-17%	-	-42%
MG	-54%	-13%	-	-62%	93%	24%*	-83%	-55%	31%*	5%	22%	45%	-44%	-45%	18%	-49%	-54%	-4%	-53%	52%*	-9%
RJ	-77%	-37%	-	4%	-	27%	-59%	-	-	28%	-26%	-19%	-	-47%	-	-45%	-34%	-	-58%	-	-46%
SP	-84%	27%	-	-51%	68%*	24%*	-99%	88%	67%	20%	-39%	73%	12%	-10%	46%*	16%	-48%	11%	-48%	31%	33%*
GO	-49%	-24%	-	-75%	-	24%*	11%	-72%	-2%	-1%	-16%	67%	-92%	-41%	-	-42%	-57%	-3%	-58%	52%*	40%
MT	-91%	18%	-	17%	-	24%*	-81%	-71%	-43%	-13%	29%*	45%*	-	-32%	-	-62%	-40%	3%	85%	-	33%*
MS	-93%	33%*	-	-22%	-	24%*	-99%	-83%	52%	-37%	-	45%*	-	22%	-	29%	-69%	8%	-	52%*	33%*
PR	-90%	86%	-43%	-6%	68%*	24%*	-89%	-51%	31%*	-26%	-15%	91%	53%*	-2%	46%*	42%	-51%	15%	82%	52%*	33%*
RS	-79%	-	-	13%	97%	-4%	-33%	-	31%*	-8%	-27%	31%	53%*	14%	46%*	65%	-27%	13%	56%*	56%	6%
SC	-93%	-	-	83%	13%	-18%	-59%	-	31%*	31%	-20%	-4%	53%*	-1%	89%	-29%	-24%	17%	56%*	10%	-45%

Variable	Number of observations	Average	Standard Deviation	Min.	Max.
Temperature (monthly)	5364	22,23	3,38	13,82	29,02
Precipitation (monthly)	5364	114,74	42,2	32,68	292,77
Spring/Summer Temperature	5364	23,86	2,46	16,49	29,57
Autumn/Winter Temperature	5364	20,61	4,37	11,16	28,48
Spring/Summer Precipitation	5364	134,33	57,12	31,78	386,78
Autumn/Winter Precipitation	5364	95,15	49,2	9	281,15
Altitude	5364	413,44	269,7	0	1495,63
Latitude	5364	-16,26	9,41	-33,51	3,88
Longitude	5364	-46,58	7,06	-72,91	-34,81
Machinery and Equipment (R$/Ha)	5364	6.364*	11.700*	12	184.000*
Labour	5364	0,08	0,31	0	320
Associated with class entities	5364	0,15	1,58	0	1830,7
Associated with cooperatives	5364	0,04	0,13	0	59,74
Improvements (area)	5364	397,61	639,01	0	10851
Facilities (R$/Ha)	5364	11.400*	16.400*	15	203.000*
Irrigated Area	5364	287,22	860,34	0	13969,15

Variable	Number of observations	Average	Standard Deviation	Min.	Max.
Temperature (monthly)	5327	22,01	2,47	13,83	29,03
Precipitation (monthly)	5327	128,27	25,31	32,68	292,78
Spring/Summer Temperature	5327	23,67	1,78	16,50	29,57
Autumn/Winter Temperature	5327	20,35	3,29	11,16	28,48
Spring/Summer Precipitation	5327	179,53	55,19	31,78	386,79
Autumn/Winter Precipitation	5327	77,00	44,26	9,01	302,70
Altitude	5327	507,30	246,89	0,00	1495,64
Latitude	5327	-19,07	6,43	-33,69	4,48
Longitude	5327	-50,33	5,27	-72,92	-34,81
Machinery and Equipment (R$/Ha)	5327	16.400*	36.600*	52	654.000*
Labour	5327	0,01	0,04	0	12,2
Associated with cooperatives	5327	0,13	0,47	0	145,85
Associated with class entities	5327	0,14	0,90	0	174,37
Improvements (area)	5327	794,11	1603,33	0	66.740
Facilities (R$/Ha)	5327	20.200*	38.800*	2	48.600*
Irrigated Area	5327	4897,5	9175,9	0	69.843

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E-mail: sober@sober.org.br

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[1] Source: Own elaboration based on the results of the econometric model. Note: Robust standard error to heteroscedasticity in parentheses. p-value <0.01, ** p-value <0.05, *p-value <0.10.