Stability of rainfed food agriculture in Paraíba in the face of rainfall instability

Abstract

Most farmers in Paraíba practice rainfed agriculture, which depends on rainfall for full development. The crops studied are rice, beans, cassava, and corn. The general objective is to assess whether these rainfed crops have sustainable yields and incomes as a result of climatic variability in the state, from 1945 to 2020; and to assess whether the rains are capable of affecting the forecast production of these crops for the period 2021/2030. The data is taken from Municipal Agricultural Production, IBGE Statistical Yearbooks and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The research used the Box and Jenkins method to draw the trajectories of productivity and aggregate income per hectare. To assess whether there was sustainability over the period studied, the research estimated instantaneous TGC. The results show that the state had high rainfall instability (CV=26%) during the period analyzed and that rainfall interferes with the prediction of aggregate productivity but does not directly interfere with the prediction of aggregate income per hectare of the crops studied. In general, farmers managed to maintain sustainable agricultural production in Paraíba and demonstrated self-resilience to the effects of stresses caused by rainfall instability, although there were periods during the analyzed trajectory when this did not occur.

Keywords:
semi-arid; rainfed agriculture; box and jenkins; sustainability