The impact of unemployment insurance on reinsertion wages in 2015 in the rural environment of Brazil

Amorim, Domingos Isaias Maia; Tabosa, Francisco José Silva; Almeida, Alexandre Nunes; Castelar, Pablo Urano de Carvalho

doi:10.1590/1806-9479.2021.242480

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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

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ARTICLE • Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural 61 (1) • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2021.242480 copy

The impact of unemployment insurance on reinsertion wages in 2015 in the rural environment of Brazil

O impacto do seguro desemprego sobre os salários de reinserção em 2015 no meio rural do Brasil

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract:

This work sought to provide new evidence on the impact of the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program (Programa Seguro-Desemprego) on the reinsertion wages of its beneficiaries, considering the Brazilian rural environment. Datafrom the National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios- PNAD) of 2015 was used, as well as the Sharp model discontinuity regression method. The results showed a positive effect on the reinsertion wages of individuals who participated in the Unemployment Insurance Program in rural Brazil. When disaggregating by Brazilian regions, the Southeast region had a greater positive effect on reinsertion wages, while the Midwest region has a negative effect on workers who participated in the Unemployment Insurance Program. Among the main conclusions, it is a fact that the Unemployment Insurance program had a positive effect for Brazilian formal rural workers residing in the Southeast of the country, but a negative effect for those residing in the Center-West region of Brazil.

Keywords:
Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program; discontinuity regression; rural environment

Months / Region	North	Northeast	Southeast	Center-West	South	Brazil
1	14.05	40.80	26.94	7.80	10.41	100
2	6.91	48.37	27.56	5.27	11.89	100
3	11.32	44.35	25.35	8.58	10.40	100
4	10.29	30.91	31.66	11.32	15.83	100
5	13.72	36.03	24.32	9.86	16.07	100
6	13.31	45.35	14.13	11.74	15.47	100
7	11.86	27.04	29.40	8.50	23.21	100
8	7.20	25.84	30.68	12.06	24.22	100
9	3.76	48.00	21.52	8.88	17.84	100
10	7.31	41.70	27.51	11.37	12.11	100
11	7.36	25.64	24.00	18.48	24.54	100
Total	10.16	37.88	25.22	10.53	16.21	100

Groups	Observations	Mean (R$)	Standard Error	Standard Deviation	Confidence Interval
Groups	Observations	Mean (R$)	Standard Error	Standard Deviation	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
Control	352,515	870.35	1.3044	774.4543	867.7973	872.9104
Treatment	328,443	921.83	1.2347	707.6009	919.4125	924.2525
Combined	680,958	895.18	0.9009	743.4053	893.4176	896.949
Diff		-51.47	1.8018		-55.0101	-47.9471

Cutoff point c=6	Left of c	Right of c
Number of observations	352785	328443
Polynomial Order	4	4
Chosen scale	1,000	1,000
Selection bins	105	60
Bin length	7665	5074
IMSE-optimal bins	105	60
Mimicking variance bins	44340	3495
Relative to IMSE-optimal
Implied Scale	1	1
WIMSE variance weight	0.500	0.500
WIMSE bias weight	0.500	0.500

Method	Coeficient	Standand Deviation	Z
*Conventional*	-31.699 ***	3.7852	-8.3745
*Bias-corrected*	171.98 ***	3.7852	45.4346
*Robust*	171.98 ***	7.6266	22.5500

Method	Coefficient	Standard Dev.	Z
North Region
*Conventional*	-94.091 ***	8.2136	-11.4556
*Bias-corrected*	134.86 ***	8.2136	16.4186
*Robust*	134.86 ***	17.879	7.5428
NortheastRegion
*Conventional*	-93.17 ***	5.7747	-16.1344
*Bias-corrected*	-13.17 **	5.7747	-2.2807
*Robust*	-13.17	11.279	-1.1677
SoutheastRegion
*Conventional*	495.51 ***	8.0832	61.3009
*Bias-corrected*	822.88 ***	8.0832	101.8004
*Robust*	822.88 ***	14.279	57.6275
Center-West Region
*Conventional*	-220.11 ***	12.648	-17.4023
*Bias-corrected*	-280.87 ***	12.648	-22.2058
*Robust*	-280.87 ***	25.111	-11.1851
South Region
*Conventional*	-152.59 ***	9.8282	-15.5254
*Bias-corrected*	11.632	9.8282	1.1835
*Robust*	11.632	20.945	0.5554

Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural Av. W/3 Norte, Quadra 702 Ed. Brasília Rádio Center Salas 1049-1050, 70719 900 Brasília DF Brasil, - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: sober@sober.org.br

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[1] Source: Prepared by the authors using data from the 2015 PNAD (PNAD, 2015PNAD - IBGE (2015). Pesquisa nacional por amostra de domicílios. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.).