Potential impacts of reducing the microregional yield gaps for main food crops in Brazil

Impactos potenciais da redução do hiato de rendimento microrregional das principais culturas alimentares no Brasil

Abstract

This study aimed to measure yield gaps and the potential gains in production and revenue from mitigating these gaps for the four main food crops in Brazil and worldwide (rice, maize, soybean, and wheat). Based on the concepts of potential yield, observed yield, and yield gap, and data from the 2017 Brazilian Agricultural Census, a parameter for the potential yield of each crop was defined at the microregional level, and yield gaps and potential gains in production and revenue resulting from reducing these gaps were measured. The results showed that reducing yield gaps in Brazil for the analyzed crops may lead to an expansion in supply of these food products by almost 10% of the volume achieved in 2017, or the equivalent of 19 million tons. The greatest potential gains in yield and production were found for maize, 13.2%, valued at about US$ 1.7 billion (at 2017 prices). Soybean showed the lowest potential for gains in percentage terms (5.5%), but these gains would represent US$ 1.8 billion, the highest value among the crops analyzed.

Keywords:
food security; yield gap; food crops in Brazil