COVID-PA Bulletin: reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting in coping with COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil

Abstract

Objective:

To report the university extension research result entitled ‘The COVID-PA Bulletin’, which presented forecasts on the behavior of the pandemic in the state of Pará, Brazil.

Methods:

The artificial intelligence technique also known as 'artificial neural networks' was used to generate 13 bulletins with short-term forecasts based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health information system.

Results:

After eight months of predictions, the technique generated reliable results, with an average accuracy of 97% (observed for147 days) for confirmed cases, 96% (observed for 161 days) for deaths and 86% (observed for 72 days) for Intensive Care Unit bed occupancy.

Conclusion:

These bulletins have become a useful decision-making tool for public managers, assisting in the reallocation of hospital resources and optimization of COVID-19 control strategies in various regions of the state of Pará.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Artificial Intelligence; Forecast; Neural Networks; Decision Making