Seasonality of the incidence of bronchiolitis in infants — Brazil, 2016–2022: An interrupted time-series analysis

Sazonalidade da incidência de bronquiolite em lactentes — Brasil, 2016–2022: Uma análise de série temporal interrompida

ABSTRACT

Objective:

To evaluate the seasonality of acute bronchiolitis in Brazil during the 2020–2022 season and compare it with the previous seasons.

Methods:

Data from the incidence of hospitalizations due to acute bronchiolitis in infants <1 year of age were obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Public Health database for the period between 2016 and 2022. These data were also analyzed by macro-regions of Brazil (North, Northeast, Southeast, South, and Midwest). To describe seasonal and trend characteristics over time, we used the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages Model.

Results:

Compared to the pre-COVID-19 period, the incidence of hospitalizations related to acute bronchiolitis decreased by 97% during non-pharmacological interventions (March 2020 – August 2021) but increased by 95% after non-pharmacological interventions relaxation (September 2021 – December 2022), resulting in a 16% overall increase. During the pre-COVID-19 period, hospitalizations for acute bronchiolitis followed a seasonal pattern, which was disrupted in 2020–2021 but recovered in 2022, with a peak occurring in May, approximately 4% higher than the pre-COVID-19 peak.

Conclusions:

This study underscores the significant influence of COVID-19 interventions on acute bronchiolitis hospitalizations in Brazil. The restoration of a seasonal pattern in 2022 highlights the interplay between public health measures and respiratory illness dynamics in young children.

Keywords:
COVID-19; Bronchiolitis; Hospitalization; Infants