Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered
                    as predictors for the occurrence of bacillary dysentery in Guangzhou, Southern
                    China

Negative binomial multivariable regression was used to study relationships between meteorological variables and the occurrence of BD during the period of 2006-2012.

Results

Each 1°C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3.60% (95%CI, 3.03% to 4.18%) in the monthly number of BD cases, whereas a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of BD cases by 2.85% (95%CI = 3.34% to 2.37% decrease).

Conclusions

Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of BD in Guangzhou.

Bacillary dysentery; Weather factors; Correlation

	Atmospheric pressure	Relative humidity	Average temperature	Rainfall	Sunshine	Wind velocity
Atmospheric pressure	1.00
Relative humidity	-0.59 (p = 0.00)	1.00
Average temperature	-0.86 (p = 0.00)	0.32 (p = 0.00)	1.00
Rainfall	-0.58 (p = 0.00)	0.52 (p = 0.00)	0.53 (p = 0.00)	1.00
Sunshine	-.028 (p = 0.01)	-0.43 (p = 0.00)	0.40 (p = 0.00)	-0.16 (p = 0.15)	1.00
Wind velocity	-0.10 (p = 0.36)	0.20 (p = 0.06)	-0.28 (p = 0.01)	-0.12 (p = 0.29)	0.00 (p = 0.99)	1.00

	β	Standard error	P Value	Percente change = (e^β−1)^* * Negative binomial regression model for monthly BD incidences, not including (A) average temperature (A) or (B) atmospheric pressure (B). Final models, not including (C) average temperature or (D) atmospheric pressure. %	95%CI for percent change (%)
	β	Standard error	P Value		lower boundary	upper boundary
(A)
Intercept	629.02	21.84	0.00	—	—	—
average atmospheric pressure	-0.03	0.01	0.00	-2.79	-3.81	-1.76
average relative humidity	0.00	0.01	0.59	-0.27	-1.27	0.73
average wind velocity	-0.06	0.05	0.23	-5.37	-13.50	3.52
aggregate rainfall	0.00	0.00	0.64	0.01	-0.02	0.03
aggregate sunshine	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.09	-0.03	0.20
year	-0.30	0.01	0.00	-25.69	-27.32	-24.02
(B)
Intercept	573.78	23.41	0.00	—	—	—
average temperature	0.03	0.01	0.00	3.56	2.50	4.63
average relative humidity	0.00	0.00	0.69	-0.18	-1.04	0.69
average wind velocity	0.04	0.05	0.39	4.17	-5.01	14.24
aggregate rainfall	0.00	0.00	0.78	0.00	-0.02	0.03
aggregate sunshine	0.00	0.00	0.64	0.03	-0.09	0.14
year	-0.28	0.01	0.00	-24.73	-26.44	-22.98
(C)
Intercept	641.86	17.24	0.00	—	—	—
average atmospheric pressure	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-2.85	-3.34	-2.37
year	-0.30	0.01	0.00	-26.15	-27.33	-24.94
(D)
Intercept	562.97	16.62	0.00	—	—	—
average temperature	0.04	0.00	0.00	3.60	3.03	4.18
year	-0.28	0.01	0.00	-24.33	-25.54	-23.09

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[1] Address to: Dr. Tiegang Li. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Qide Rd, n. 1, Jiahe, Baiyun, Guangzhou, 510440 Guangdong Province, China. Phone: 86 20 3605-5887; Fax: 86 20 3605-5885. e-mail: Tiegang1977@126.com