Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça; Magalhães, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra; Xavier, Diego Ricardo; Saldanha, Raphael de Freitas; Catão, Rafael de Castro

doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020

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Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical

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Sumário

Short Communication • Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop. 53 • 2020 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020 copy

Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.

METHODS

We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.

RESULTS

All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; Social Distance; Time series; Brazil

Capital	Period #1			Period #2			Period #3
	EW	APC	p value	EW	APC	p value	EW	APC	p value
Aracaju	1 to 22	66.00	<0.001	22 to 27	-2.24	0.602
Belo Horizonte	1 to 22	40.24	<0.001	22 to 25	-17.81	0.302	25 to 27	97.77	<0.001
Belém	1 to 20	65.46	<0.001	20 to 27	-13.60	<0.001
Boa Vista	1 to 27	31.22	<0.001
Brasília	1 to 27	24.03	<0.001
Campo Grande	1 to 27	34.29	<0.001
Cuiabá	1 to 27	26.07	<0.001
Curitiba	1 to 27	26.95	<0.001
Florianópolis	1 to 27	14.46	<0.001
Fortaleza	1 to 19	53.38	<0.001	19 to 27	-11.71	0.001
Goiânia	1 to 27	28.13	<0.001
João Pessoa	1 to 22	66.91	<0.001	21 to 27	-6.34	0.083
Macapá	1 to 27	22.22	<0.001
Maceió	1 to 22	60.83	<0.001	22 to 27	-16.86	<0.001
Manaus	1 to 20	47.58	<0.001	20 to 27	-14.52
Natal	1 to 27	26.23	<0.001
Palmas	1 to 27	23.26	<0.001
Porto Alegre	1 to 27	18.79	<0.001
Porto Velho	1 to 22	74.68	<0.001	22 to 27	-10.47	0.053
Recife	1 to 19	54.75	<0.001	19 to 27	-16.56	<0.001
Rio Branco	1 to 20	76.92	<0.001	20 to 27	-11.62	<0.001
Rio de Janeiro	1 to 22	40.36	<0.001	22 to 27	-16.88	0.009
Salvador	1 to 22	57.07	<0.001	22 to 25	-19.39	0.085	25 to 27	52.08	<0.001
São Luís	1 to 27	22.39	<0.001	22 to 27	-32.01	<0.001
São Paulo	1 to 22	34.97	<0.001	22 to 27	-10.00	0.002
Teresina	1 to 27	22.79	<0.001
Vitória	1 to 22	55.70	<0.001	22 to 27	-10.76	<0.001

Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT Caixa Postal 118, 38001-970 Uberaba MG Brazil, Tel.: +55 34 3318-5255 / +55 34 3318-5636/ +55 34 3318-5287, http://rsbmt.org.br/ - Uberaba - MG - Brazil
E-mail: rsbmt@uftm.edu.br

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[1] Corresponding author: Dr. Raphael Mendonça Guimarães. e-mail:raphael.guimaraes@fiocruz.br