Influence of temperature and precipitation on dengue incidence in Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil (2013-2022)

By using monthly data, we estimated linear regressions with ARIMA errors to measure the influence of temperature and precipitation on dengue incidence in the city of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil.

Results:

Findings suggest that a 1°C increase in mean temperature can lead to a cumulative increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence within 2 months. Precipitation shows no significant impact.

Conclusions:

Results highlight the importance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-borne diseases.

Keywords:
Dengue; Time series; Climate; Temperature; Precipitation

Exogenous variables	Regression with ARIMA errors
	Model 1:	Model 2:	Model 3:	Model 4:	Model 5:	Model 6:
	ARIMA	ARIMA	ARIMA	ARIMA	ARIMA	ARIMA
	(2,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂	(2,0,0)(2,1,0)₁₂	(0,0,5)(1,0,0)₁₂	(2,0,0)(1,0,0)₁₂	(3,0,3)	(2,0,4)
Temperature (t)	-	NS	NS	2.82*** (1.03)	3.13*** (0.91)	4.27*** (0.91)
Temperature (t-1)	-	-	NS	2.25** (1.05)	2.13** (0.88)	2.61*** (0.90)
Temperature (t-2)	-	-	-	1.79* (1.04)	-	2.56*** (0.94)
Precipitation (t)	-	NS	NS	NS	NS	NS
Precipitation (t-1)	-	-	NS	NS	NS	NS
Precipitation (t-2)	-	-	-	NS	-	NS
Dummy	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
Diagnostics tests and other measures
Shapiro-Wilk test	p < 0.01	p < 0.01	p = 0.05	No	Yes	Yes	p = 0.67	p = 0.10	p = 0.47
ARCH-LM test	p = 0.24	p = 0.27	p = 0.57	p = 0.88	p = 0.84	p = 0.68
Ljung-Box test: Q(18)	p < 0.01	p < 0.01	p < 0.01	p = 0.01	p = 0.29	p = 0.22
Q(24)	p < 0.01	p < 0.01	p = 0.03	p = 0.03	p = 0.57	p = 0.50
AIC	225.50	227.88	245.61	245.53	241.22	238.44
SRMSE	-	-	-	-	0.4125	0.4108

Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical - SBMT, Núcleo de Medicina Tropical UnB, Sala 43C 70904-970, E-mails: rsbmt@uftm.edu.br | artes.rsbmt@gmail.com | sbmt@sbmt.org.br , WhatsApp: SBMT (61) 9.9192-6496, WhatsApp: RSBMT (34) 9.9996-5807 - Brasília - DF - Brazil
E-mail: rsbmt@uftm.edu.br

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[1] ✉ Bernardo Geraldini. e-mail:bernardo.geraldini@gmail.com