The article deals with the electoral connection between members of the three southern states of Brazil between 1998 and 2010, covering four elections and three legislatures. The main objective of the study was to identify and analyze the associations between the profile of the parliamentary vote and his performance in Congress and between this and their chances for reelection in the subsequent election. Therefore, we use two data sets: the origin of the votes of deputies from the southern states of Brazil between 1998 and 2010 elections, and the action of these MPs, especially from the individual budget amendments. Using the model of the "reason of chance", through the index of the Electoral Impact of Amendments, we demonstrated that the allocation of resources through the budget amendments are not able to increase the chances of the deputy of obtaining more votes between the electors of the cities that received them. We concluded that the transfer of amendments cannot be taken as being among the most effective strategies to ensure reelection. Therefore, the theoretical models that take the transfer of resources must be reviewed, especially through the individual budget amendments, as being among the most effective strategies to ensure the reelection of Brazilian congressmen.
Election Connectiong; Reelection; Budget Amendments; Federal Deputies; Reason of Chance
