ABSTRACT
Introduction:
Research indicates that the prohibition of party coalitions in proportional elections reduced party fragmentation in Brazilian Municipal Legislatures in 2020. However, existing studies have focused solely on the effect of the new legal rule on the party system at the local level. This article presents an alternative analysis to explore: 1) the influence of parties' electoral results in 2016 on their decisions to field candidates in 2020; 2) the impact of the electoral performance in 2016 on candidate party-switching in 2020; and 3) whether varying strategies employed by political elites (encompassing both party leaders and candidates) have influenced the level of party fragmentation.
Materials and methods:
We utilized data on party and individual performance in municipal proportional elections from 2016 to 2020, examining three units of analysis: municipality, party, and candidate. Various statistical methods, including binary logistic regression, multinomial regression, and linear regression, were employed to assess the impact of the prohibition of proportional coalitions on the behavior of political actors.
Results:
Our research reveals that higher party performance in 2016 increased the likelihood of fielding candidates in 2020 and reduced the probability of candidate defection from their initial party. Moreover, the interplay between strategies adopted by parties and candidates significantly influenced party fragmentation, as measured by the Effective Number of Parties.
Discussion:
The findings presented in our study significantly enhance our understanding of the implications of discontinuing proportional coalitions in Brazil. In addition to revealing a reduction in party fragmentation, our research underscores that this effect is mediated by the behavior of political elites, whether in the decision to field candidates (at the party level) or in the decision to migrate or remain in the same party (at the candidate level).
Keywords
party coalitions; proportional elections; party fragmentation; Effective Number of Parties; logistic regression