Resumo
Este estudo examina em que medida os migrantes internacionais foram afetados pela pandemia da Covid-19, centrando-se no mercado de trabalho formal no Brasil. O arcabouço metodológico da pesquisa foi baseado em dados quantitativos referente aos registros administrativos do país para identificar admissões e demissões de trabalhadores migrantes. Em diálogo com a literatura sobre migração e crise, a hipótese do estudo era de que as populações migrantes seriam mais afetadas com a perda de emprego pela pandemia. Discrepantes, os dados demonstram que a alocação setorial e ocupacional dos migrantes recém-instalados no Brasil fez com que esses tivessem um saldo empregatício positivo, mesmo em comparação com os trabalhadores nativos. Além disso, verificamos que o impacto da pandemia foi desigual entre os diferentes grupos de migrantes e dependendo dos setores de atividade econômica e das profissões. Esta investigação desmistifica a ideia de que os migrantes são os primeiros afetados pelas crises econômicas.
Palavras-chave:
Pandemia de Covid-19; Mercado de trabalho; Migração; Brasil
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* The relative excess plotted in this figure is obtained by first calculating the relative net balance (hirings minus dismissals divided by hirings) for each month-year and then calculating the difference between 2019 and 2020.Source: Data from the Ministry of Economy, RAIS-CTPS-CAGED harmonized database.
* The figure shows occupational groups (1-digit CBO - Classificação Brasileira de Ocupações). We removed the armed forces occupational group because only three hirings and dismissals were registered in 2020 (none in 2019).Source: Data from the Ministry of Economy, RAIS-CTPS-CAGED harmonized database.
* Wages are deflated by the main Brazilian Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considering prices fixed in December 2020. Because the number of hours worked is unavailable, but only in groups (e.g., 41-44 hours worked in the week), hourly wages were calculated by dividing each wage by the higher number of hours worked in each group (44 in this case) and then by four weeks in a month. Only hirings were considered, and we excluded values lower than 0.3 and higher than 150 minimum salaries since they were likely to be imputation errors. Furthermore, we did not consider intermittent workers. The kernel density was calculated using default options from the R package ggplot2, including the Silverman rule of thumb bandwidth selector (nrd0) and a Gaussian kernel.Source: Data from the Ministry of Economy, RAIS-CTPS-CAGED harmonized database.
Source: Data from the Ministry of Economy, RAIS-CTPS-CAGED harmonized database.