This article examines the meteorological interpretations of phenomenon that are made by careful observers of nature. The climate forecasts, made by the sertanejos and based on empirical observations, have relevance for the probability-based climate forecasts developed by meteorological institutions. In 1998 research was carried out in six different municípios and microclimates during the months of January and February. A total of 484 household interviews were conducted. One research objective was to better understand the lay methods involved in developing weather and climate forecasts. Both the lay forecasts as well as the institutional forecasts are incomplete and constantly improving. Increasing our understanding of how empirically based forecasts are used by the sertanejos is one way to influence the acceptance of other methods of predicting climatic conditions.
Meteorological forecasts; traditional forecasts; drought; Ceará
