Socio-environmental Vulnerability to Drought in the Seridó Potiguar, Brazil: Building Indicators

Brito, Anderson Geová Maia de; Almeida, Lutiane Queiroz de

doi:10.14393/SN-v35-2023-67826x

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Papers • Soc. nat. 35 • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.14393/SN-v35-2023-67826x copy

Socio-environmental Vulnerability to Drought in the Seridó Potiguar, Brazil: Building Indicators

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Imprecise in space-time and with damaging effects, drought as a historical-natural phenomenon of high complexity has been afflicting the population of the Seridó Potiguar Region, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. For centuries, the region, of state relevance, is part of the Brazilian semiarid region. This reality produces socio-spatial, socio-economic, and political-institutional conflicts. Considering this, and the fact that drought in the 21st century continues to reach disastrous proportions and cause harm to human systems, this research aimed to offer a partial overview of the socio-environmental vulnerability of the Seridó region to drought, focusing on seven key municipalities: Bodó, Caicó, Currais Novos, Ipueira, Jardim de Piranhas, Jucurutu, and Parelhas. The Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) was applied to these municipalities, composed of the sub-indices of Exposure, Susceptibility, and Adaptive Capacity, based on socio-economic and physical-environmental variables, which were calculated, classified, and cartographically represented using the RGB color composition. After analyzing the results, it was found that the municipalities ranged from low to moderate vulnerability, which can be justified by the compensation between the variables themselves and the good indicators regarding social assistance, mixed economy, hydraulic infrastructure, and means of coping with the semiarid region.

Keywords:
Drought; Vulnerability; Semiarid; Seridó Potiguar

SUB-INDEX	ASPECT	N°	VARIABLE	SOURCE	PERIOD
Exposure	Event Characteristics	1	Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI);	EMPARNEMPARN - EMPRESA DE PESQUISA AGROPECUÁRIA DO RIO GRANDE DO NORTE. Rainfall Indexes: 1977-2017. Disponível em: http://www.emparn.rn.gov.br/. Acesso em: 03 set. de 2019. http://www.emparn.rn.gov.br...	1977-2017
	Event Characteristics	2	Aridity Index;	Jesus and Mattos (2013JESUS, E. dos S.; MATTOS, A. Análise espaço temporal da evapotranspiração sobre a microrregião do Seridó no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte. HOLOS, v. 6, p. 22-32, 2013. https://doi.org/10.15628/holos.2013.1713. https://doi.org/10.15628/holos.2013.1713... )	1990-2010
	Population Exposure	3	Workforce depending on agriculture (%);	IBGEIBGE - INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Censo Agropecuário 2017. Rio de Janeiro, 2010a. Disponível em: https://ibge.gov.br/. Acesso em: 02 mai. 2020. https://ibge.gov.br...	2010
	Population Exposure	4	Rural population (%);	IBGEIBGE - INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA. Censo Demográfico 2010. Rio de Janeiro, 2010b. Disponível em: https://ibge.gov.br/. Acesso em: 16 fev. 2020. https://ibge.gov.br...	2010
	Activity Exposure	5	Agricultural establishments with irrigation (%);	IBGE	2017
		6	Industrial dependency on agricultural raw materials (%);	BRASIL (CAGED)BRASIL. Ministério da Cidadania. Auxílio Brasil e Cadastro Único no seu município. 2017a. Disponível em: https://aplicacoes.cidadania.gov.br/ri/pabcad/. Acesso em: 30 jun. 2021. https://aplicacoes.cidadania.gov.br/ri/p...	2017
		7	Crop exposure (%);	IBGE	2017
		8	Herd Exposure (%);	IBGE/ANAANA - AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ÁGUAS. Catálogo de Metadados da ANA: semiárido. Arquivos Shapefiles, 2020. Disponível em: https://metadados.snirh.gov.br/geonetwork/srv/por/catalog.search#/metadata/3c8b249e-8ec3-4db1-b188-bab3c3c3240f. Acesso em: 24 jul. 2020. https://metadados.snirh.gov.br/geonetwor...	2017
Susceptibility	Socioeconomic Characteristics	9	GDP Per Capita (R$);	IBGE	2017
		10	Inequality Index (Gini);	BRASIL (DATASUS)BRASIL. Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde do Brasil (DATASUS). Ministério da Saúde. Informações em Saúde (TABNET): 2010. https://datasus.saude.gov.br/informacoes-de-saude-tabnet/. https://datasus.saude.gov.br/informacoes...	2010
		11	Unemployed Workforce (%);	BRASIL (CAGED)BRASIL. Ministério da Cidadania. Auxílio Brasil e Cadastro Único no seu município. 2017a. Disponível em: https://aplicacoes.cidadania.gov.br/ri/pabcad/. Acesso em: 30 jun. 2021. https://aplicacoes.cidadania.gov.br/ri/p...	2010-2017
	Technological Characteristics	12	Water volume of reservoirs in the reference year (%);	IGARNIGARN - Instituto de Gestão das Águas do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte. Ministério da Economia. Monitoramento Volumétrico. 2017. Disponível em: https://bi.mte.gov.br/bgcaged/caged_perfil_municipio/index.php. Acesso em: 04 fev. 2020. https://bi.mte.gov.br/bgcaged/caged_perf...	2017
		13	Families not served by wells (in operation) (%);	CPRMCPRM - Serviço Geológico do Brasil. Ministério de Minas e Energia. Sistema de Informações de Águas Subterrâneas (SIAGAS). 2020. Disponível em: https://siagasweb.sgb.gov.br/layout/index.php/. Acesso em: 13 maio 2020. https://siagasweb.sgb.gov.br/layout/inde...	2020
		14	Families not served by Cisterns (%);	Morais (2016MORAIS, H. A. R. Avaliação do programa um milhão de cisternas rurais (P1MC): eficácia, eficiência e efetividade nos territórios do Rio Grande do Norte (2003/2015). 2016. 85 f. Dissertação (Mestrado) - Curso de Administração, Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2016. https://doi.org/10.18764/2178-2865.v21n1p133-158 https://doi.org/10.18764/2178-2865.v21n1... )	2015
		15	Families not served by Water Trucks (%);	Souza et al (2016SOUZA, J. L.; SANTOS, M. P. S.; GUEDES, M. L. M.; ALMEIDA, L. Q. Água sobre rodas: Água sobre rodas: O uso de carros-pipa como medida de resposta à seca no Seridó Potiguar. In: CONGRESSO INTERNACIONAL DA DIVERSIDADE DO SEMIÁRIDO, 1., 2016, Campina Grande. Anais [...]. Campina Grande: Realize, 2016. v. 1, p. 1-13.)	2014
		16	Sanitation coverage (%);	BRASIL (DATASUS)BRASIL. Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde do Brasil (DATASUS). Ministério da Saúde. Informações em Saúde (TABNET): 2010. https://datasus.saude.gov.br/informacoes-de-saude-tabnet/. https://datasus.saude.gov.br/informacoes...	2010
		17	Rural properties using silage for forage or grain storage (%);	IBGE	2017
	Activity Characteristics	18	Degraded/unsuitable areas for agriculture (%);	IBGE	2017
Adaptive Capacity	Capacity to Cope	19	Retired population (%);	INSSINSS - INSTITUTO NACIONAL DO SEGURO SOCIAL. Quantidade de benefícios emitidos pelo Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social - INSS, nos municípios brasileiros, segundo grupos de espécies. Brasília, 2017. Disponível em: https://www.gov.br/trabalho-e-previdencia/pt-br. Acesso em: 16 fev. 2020. https://www.gov.br/trabalho-e-previdenci...	2017
		20	Municipal Human Development Index (HDI);	IBGE	2010
		21	Population served by Social Programs (%);	BRASILBRASIL. Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados (CAGED). Ministério da Economia. Perfil do Município: 2010-2017. Dados fornecidos através do Programa de disseminação das estatísticas do trabalho, 2017 Disponível em: https://bi.mte.gov.br/bgcaged/caged_perfil_municipio/index.php. Acesso em: 21 dez. 2019. https://bi.mte.gov.br/bgcaged/caged_perf...	2017
	Livelihoods	22	Workforce independent of Agriculture (%);	IBGE	2017

EXPOSURE SUB-INDEX
It can be defined as the nature and intensity of environmental stress, in this case, climatic, on a territory or human system, including magnitude, frequency, duration, and spatial distribution.
ASPECTS
Event Characteristics	Population Exposure	Activity Exposure
Related to the elements that compose drought.	Allows understanding the extent to which the population is exposed to drought	Takes into account the types of economic activities, particularly agricultural activities.
SUSCEPTIBILITY SUB-INDEX
It is the degree to which a vulnerable system can be affected by disturbances, considering its socioeconomic and physical-environmental characteristics, representing the system's readiness and capacity to absorb adverse impacts without long-term damage.
ASPECTS
Socioeconomic Characteristics	Technological Characteristics	Activity Characteristics
Refers to factors such as poverty and income inequality.	Related to infrastructure for water treatment, distribution, and storage, as well as food-related infrastructure.	Refers to the types of agricultural activities conducted and the conditions under which they are carried out.
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY SUB-INDEX
Represents the ability of human systems to minimize, cope with, prepare for, and recover from future disaster impacts. It consists of variables that reflect how the affected system will cope.
ASPECTS
Coping Capacity	Livelihoods
Takes into account the human capacity to cope with adverse events based on their socioeconomic conditions.	Includes the socioeconomic situation of individuals, considering their available financial resources and/or income.

VALUE IVS		DROUGHT VULNERABILITY	RGB COMPOSITION
Very Low	0 - 0,20	low vulnerability	R: 0 - G: 0 - B: 255
Low	0,20 - 0,40	moderate vulnerability	R: 0 - G: 255 - B: 0
Medium	0,40 - 0,60	medium vulnerability	R: 255 - G: 255 - B: 0
High	0,60 - 0,80	high vulnerability	R: 255 - G: 153 - B: 5
Very High	0,80 - 1	very high vulnerability	R: 255 - G: 0 - B: 0

VALUE OF DEGREE		EXPOSURE	SUSCEPTIBILITY	ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Low	0 - 0,35	R: 255 - G: 79 - B: 79	R: 255 - G: 229 - B: 153	R: 168 - G: 208 - B: 141
Medium	0,35-0,65	R: 255 - G: 0 - B: 0	R: 255 - G: 255 - B: 0	R: 75 - G: 255 - B: 33
High	0,65 - 1	R: 192 - G: 0 - B: 0	R: 255 - G: 192 - B: 0	R: 56 - G: 85 - B: 36

VALUE	SITUATION	EXPOSURE AND SUSCEPTIBILITY	ADAPTATIVE CAPACITY
Very Low	Very Poor	0 - 0,20	0 - 0,20
Low	Poor	0,20 - 0,40	0,20 - 0,40
Medium	Fair	0,40 - 0,60	0,40 - 0,60
High	Good	0,60 - 0,80	0,60 - 0,80
Very High	Very Good	0,80 - 1	0,80 - 1

DAY	MUNICIPALITIES	ACTIVITIES PERFORMED
20/11/2020	Ipueira/Caicó	Recognition of urban areas; Visitation to rural areas and photographic registration of reservoirs and cisterns; Visitation and photographic registration of Martelo and Itans dams; •Photographic registration of the landscape;
21/11/2020	Caicó/Jardim de Piranhas	Recognition and registration of the urban center; Visitation to rural areas and photographic registration of reservoirs and cisterns; Photographic registration of the landscape;
22/11/2020	Jardim de Piranhas	Recognition of the urban area of the Municipality; Visitation and photographic registration of the Piranhas River; Photographic registration of the landscape;
23/11/2020	Jucurutu/Caicó	Recognition of urban areas; Visitation to rural areas and photographic registration of reservoirs and cisterns; Visitation and photographic registration of Oiticica Dam, Mundo Novo reservoir, and Santo Expedito and Serra de Santana pipelines; •Photographic registration of the landscape;
03/06/2021	Bodó/Currais Novos e Parelhas	Recognition of urban areas; Visitation to rural areas and photographic registration of reservoirs and cisterns; Visitation and photographic registration of Dourado and Boqueirão reservoirs, Santo Expedito and Serra de Santana pipelines; Photographic registration of the landscape;

SUB-INDEX	N°	BODÓ	CAICÓ	CURRAIS NOVOS	IPUEIRA	JARDIM DE PIRANHAS	JUCURUTU	PARELHAS
EXPOSUSE	1	0,2460	0,3713	0,4502	0,3728	0,4639	0,4436	0,3158
	2	0,7557	0,7557	0,7711	0,7593	0,7548	0,7447	0,7454
	3	0,2613	0,0720	0,0650	0,1555	0,1008	0,3463	0,0756
	4	0,4256	0,0837	0,1143	0,0905	0,2155	0,4027	0,1607
	5	0,0192	0,1551	0,2832	0,0110	0,2984	0,1833	0,1980
	6	0,4000	0,6931	0,4153	0,0000	0,9348	0,8600	0,3272
	7	0,1996	0,4710	0,5004	0,6490	0,4901	0,3928	0,1802
	8	0,1299	0,3564	0,1819	0,4461	0,2732	0,3409	0,2776
EXPOSURE AVARAGES		0,30	0,3047	0,3698	0,3477	0,3105	0,4414	0,4643
SUSCEPTIBILITY	9	1,0000	0,0932	0,0838	0,0332	0,0000	0,0335	0,0713
	10	0,5259	0,5620	0,5912	0,3995	0,4607	0,4697	0,4533
	11	0,0043	0,1335	0,0877	0,0041	0,0269	0,0206	0,0521
	12	0,6600	0,9900	0,7600	0,8900	0,5000	0,5000	0,6400
	13	0,9804	0,9895	0,9908	0,9519	0,9939	0,9954	0,9871
	14	0,0000	0,8600	0,8800	0,0000	0,8500	0,8600	0,3800
	15	0,9910	0,9998	0,9978	0,9984	1,0000	0,9998	0,9990
	16	0,9842	0,2830	0,2040	0,9828	0,9494	0,7831	0,2945
	17	0,9600	0,2300	0,7800	0,7300	0,1900	0,8300	0,4400
	18	0,0322	0,0653	0,0672	0,0346	0,1216	0,1460	0,1173
SUSCEPTIBILITY AVARAGE		0,61	0,6138	0,5206	0,5443	0,5025	0,5092	0,5638
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY	19	0,1036	0,2089	0,2631	0,0969	0,1175	0,2417	0,2339
	20	0,6290	0,7100	0,6910	0,6790	0,6030	0,6010	0,6760
	21	0,8964	0,4447	0,2021	0,6539	0,2219	0,6756	0,6058
	22	0,7387	0,9280	0,9351	0,8445	0,8992	0,6537	0,9244
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AVARAGE		0,59	0,5919	0,5729	0,5228	0,5686	0,4604	0,5430
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AVARAGE - 1		0,41	0,4081	0,4271	0,4772	0,4314	0,5396	0,4570
DROUGHT VULNERABILITY INDEX (DVI)		0,44	0,4422	0,4392	0,4564	0,4148	0,4968	0,4950

MAIN VULNERABILITIES	MUNICIPALITIES	MAIN MEASURES	EFFECTS
Low agricultural storage capacity.	Bodó/Jucurutu	Investing in means to store and stock agricultural production, such as programs like Plano Safra and PRONAF.	LT
Low levels of basic sanitation.	Bodó/Jardim de Piranhas/Jucurutu	Investing in expanding sanitation coverage through partnerships with the state, such as CAERN (Water and Sewage Company of Rio Grande do Norte), and the federal government.	MT
Inequality.	Bodó/ Caicó/Currais Novos	Strengthening municipal tax collection and developing programs to reduce gender, racial, and income inequalities, as well as income distribution and transfers.	ST
Dependency on the agricultural sector.	Caicó/Jardim de Piranhas/Jucurutu	Diversifying the economic matrix through other sectors such as mining, geotourism, and renewable energy.	MT
Limited water resources.	Caicó/Ipueira	Promoting campaigns and developing jurisprudence against water waste, as well as expanding technologies for capturing water from alternative sources.	LT
Low coverage of cisterns, wells, and water trucks.	Caicó/Currais Novos/Jardim de Piranhas/Jucurutu/Parelhas	Investing in technologies to mitigate the adverse effects of drought through partnerships with the state government and the federal government.	MT
Insufficient social assistance coverage.	Caicó/Currais Novos/Jardim de Piranhas	Expanding assistance coverage to more vulnerable families using own resources or through federal support.	ST
High levels of rainfall anomaly.	Currais Novos/Jardim de Piranhas/Jucurutu	Implementing environmental education programs and investing in technologies for coexistence with the semiarid region.	ST
High aridity index.	Currais Novos	Promoting campaigns and developing jurisprudence against deforestation, as well as implementing reforestation and restoration programs for degraded areas.	MT
Dependency on public administration.	Ipueira	Diversifying the economic matrix through sectors such as mining, textile, bakery, and renewable energy.	MT
High exposure of crops and livestock.	Ipueira	Aligning the size of livestock herds and crops with water availability and investing in technologies that reduce extensive livestock farming practices.	MT

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[TFN1] Source: adapted by the authors based on Rosendo (2014ROSENDO, E. E. Q. Desenvolvimento de indicadores de vulnerabilidade à seca na região semiárida brasileira. 2014. 137 f. Dissertação (Mestrado) - Curso de Geografia, Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, João Pessoa, 2014.).