Prospective environmental scenarios for urban coastal landscape management in Aracaju, SE, Brazil

Abstract

Environmental scenario construction is a valuable tool for planning and management purposes. Given the speed with which changes have been taking place in the geographic space, the use of an instrument capable of predicting future situations based on today's circumstances can be an important ally in the establishment of scenarios that allow for coastal zone use and conservation. In this context, the present study aimed to develop prospective environmental scenarios for coastal neighborhoods located in the municipality of Aracaju, SE, Brazil. A qualitative approach was applied based on the following steps: central issue establishment, driving force identification, critical uncertainty delimitation, logical scenario determination and scenario development. Three scenarios were outlined, as follows: the current scenario, based on an assessment concerning environmental landscape status, an occupation spatialization analysis and the delimitation of the acting driving forces, the trend scenario (pessimistic), whose main condition consists in disorderly urban expansion combined with geoecological unit suppression, and the recommended scenario (optimistic), which was developed taking into account landscape use/occupation and support capacity compatibility. The analyses carried out in the present study indicate an instability in part of the natural units in the current scenario, a result of a disordered urban expansion due to the joint action of public and private actors. Because of this, the trend scenario is expected to worsen landscape instability, with support capacity disruption and the emergence of risk situations. Aiming at planning actions, a recommended scenario seeking to construct an urban growth compatible with the preservation of the most susceptible natural units was developed, respecting the landscape's support capacity and legal instruments. It is noted, therefore, therefore, that scenarization can be applied not only to predict future situations, but also to prevent a calamitous scenario from being repeated.

Keywords:
Scenarization; Environmental landscape state; Environmental planning