Avaliação de Estratégias de Relaxamento do Distanciamento Social para o Brasil e o Estado do Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT

In this work, we propose and analyze social distancing relaxation measures and their epidemiological impacts through simulations of a compartmental mathematical model. Our generalized SEIRD model implicitly takes into account social distancing measures, considering the estimate of the spreading dynamics of COVID-19 under disturbances/uncertainties. The main objective is to assess the effects on the projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and, in particular, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Different relaxation strategies of social distancing measures are investigated to determine which ones are viable and less dangerous for the population. The results highlight the need to maintain social distancing policies to control the spread of the disease. Specifically, the scenario considered as abrupt relaxation measures, implemented after the peak of positively diagnosed cases has occurred, can prolong the epidemic, with a significant increase in the expected number of confirmed and death cases. An even worse scenario can occur if the relaxation policy is implemented prior to the evidence of epidemiological control, indicating the importance of the proper choice of when to stop and start to relax social distancing measures. The approach employed here, and the subsequent analyzes applied to Brazil and Rio de Janeiro, can be used for other locations.

Keywords:
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; generalized SEIRD model; social distancing