Dinâmica de Sistemas aplicada a políticas de transporte sustentável: uma revisão sistemática

Fontoura, Wlisses Bonelá; Ribeiro, Glaydston Mattos

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Sumário

Scientific Article • urbe, Rev. Bras. Gest. Urbana 13 • 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-3369.013.e20200259 copiar

Dinâmica de Sistemas aplicada a políticas de transporte sustentável: uma revisão sistemática

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumo

A Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) é um método eficiente que permite analisar os sistemas com complexidade dinâmica e resistência política. A abordagem holística da DS é adequada para os atuais problemas de transporte. Entre as diversas aplicações da SD no setor de transporte, destaca-se o uso dessa ferramenta no desenvolvimento e implementação de políticas de transporte sustentável. Nesse contexto, este artigo tem o objetivo realizar uma revisão sistemática para avaliar o uso da DS no desenvolvimento e na implementação de políticas urbanas focadas no transporte sustentável. Os resultados mostram que grande parte dos estudos analisa políticas focadas na redução das externalidades negativas do transporte, destacando os esforços para reduzir a emissão de poluentes e o congestionamento. Entretanto, não encontramos na literatura um estudo que analise os modos não motorizados e motorizados por meio das variáveis econômicas, ambientais, sociais, de uso do solo e de tráfego. Ao final deste estudo, são apontadas as lacunas encontradas na literatura que podem ser exploradas em estudos futuros.

Palavras-chave:
Transporte sustentável; Mobilidade urbana; Políticas urbanas; Dinâmica de Sistemas; Revisão sistemática

Database	Identified	Duplicates	Selected	Included
Web of Science	100	1	15	15
Compendex	99	1	15	6
Scopus	144	0	18	2
DOAJ	1	0	0	0
EBSCO	3	0	3	0
Total	347	2	51	23

Authors	Title	Year	Total number of citations	Number of citations per year
Wang et al.	System Dynamics Model of Urban Transportation System and Its Application	2008	173	15.73
Armah et al.	A systems dynamics approach to explore traffic congestion and air pollution link in the city of Accra, Ghana	2010	100	11.11
Haghshenas et al.	Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan	2015	90	22.50
Cheng et al.	Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies	2015	66	16.50
Ercan et al.	Investigating carbon footprint reduction potential of public transportation in United States: A system dynamics approach	2016	53	17.67

Journal	# Papers	JCR
Sustainability	3	4.624
Journal of Cleaner Production	2	6.395
Journal of Simulation	2	1.533

Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Wang et al. (2008Wang, J., Lu, H., & Peng, H. (2008). System Dynamics Model of Urban Transportation System and Its Application. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 8(3), 83-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1570-6672(08)60027-6 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1570-6672(08)... )	Vehicle development	M	ECO, ENV, and TC	50 years	The authors suggest restrain the use and the ownership of private vehicles.
Armah et al. (2010Armah, F., A., Yawson, D. O., & Pappoe, A. N. M. (2010). A system dynamics approach to explore traffic congestion and air pollution in the city of Accra, Ghana. Sustainability, 2(1), 252-265. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su2010252 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su2010252... )	Government policy and planning; Travel demand management; and Supply management	M	ECO, ENV, SOC, and TC	Not performed	Proposed measures: development of a public transport system, road network expanding and enhancing, and travel demand management alternatives.
Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Liu et al. (2010Liu, H., Liu, T., Liu, L., Guo, H. C., Yu, Y. J., &Wang, Z. (2010). Integrated simulation and optimization approach for the urban transportation-environmental system in Beijing. Journal of Environmental Informatics, 15(2), 99-111. http://dx.doi.org/10.3808/jei.201000170 http://dx.doi.org/10.3808/jei.201000170... )	Clean transportation; Bus priority; Subway priority; and Car trip restriction	NM and M	ECO, ENV, and LU	15 years	Pollutants, energy consumption and land demand for roads will exceed the capacity of Beijing in 2020, if nothing changes. The four policies have positive results, but the integration of the four measures shows better results.
Bernardino and Van der Hoofd (2013Bernardino, J. P. R., & Van der Hoofd, M. (2013). Parking policy and urban mobility level of service - System Dynamics as a modelling tool for decision making. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 13(3), 239-258. http://dx.doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2013.13.3.3001 http://dx.doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2013.13... )	Parking policy	M	ECO, LU, and TC	Unavailable data	The parking policy regulates the scarcity of parking and the traffic congestion. Thus, the system performs better, increasing the average speed in the network by up to 35%.
Bisen et al. (2014Bisen, A., Verma, P., Chaube, A., & Jain, R. (2014). Evaluating emission mitigation strategies for sustainable transportation system: a system dynamics approach. World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 5(2), 101-124. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/WRITR.2014.067228 http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/WRITR.2014.067... )	Provision of pedestrian lane; User defined vehicle occupancy; Impact of telecommunication application; and Change in land use characteristics	NM and M	ECO, ENV, LU, and TC	20 years	Reduction of pollutant emissions and traffic congestion and increase of the average speed in the network.
Guzman et al. (2014Guzman, L. A., de la Hoz, D., & Monzón, A. (2014). Optimal and long-term dynamic transport policy design: Seeking maximum social welfare through a pricing scheme. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 8(4), 297-316. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2012.696772 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2012.... )	Road charge pricing policy	M	ECO, ENV, LU, and TC	30 years	Change in the modal split in radial trips. Speed increases and, consequently, the number of accidents also increases. Car travel has changed its destination pattern. Fuel consumption and pollutant emissions decreases.
Li et al. (2014Li, W., Wu, C., & Zang, S. (2014). Modeling urban land use conversion of Daqing City, China: a comparative analysis of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28(4), 817-828. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0671-0 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-067... )	Land use management	M	ECO, ENV, LU, and SOC	5 years	The model has a good accuracy and can be used as the macro-scale model for estimating the aggregated urban land use demand.
Cheng et al. (2015Cheng, Y., Chang, Y., & Lu, I. J. (2015). Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies. Applied Energy, 157, 953-973. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.126 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.201... )	Fuel tax; Motorcycle parking management; and Free bus servisse	M	ECO, ENV, SOC, and TC	30 years	Fuel tax and motorcycle parking management policies are more efficient to restrict the growth of the number of cars, the fuel consumption, and CO₂ emissions. However, fuel tax policy seems to be the most effective cost.
Haghshenas et al. (2015Haghshenas, H., Vaziri, M., & Gholamialam, A. (2015). Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan. Cities, 45, 104-115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2014.11.003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2014.... )	Increase in private infrastructure; Control of urban sprawl; Replacement of vehicles; Car sharing and carpooling; Travel demand management; Providing more mixed land use; and a set of policies to improve public and non-motorized transport	NM and M	ECO, ENV, LU, and SOC	13 years	Policy makers should prioritize the development of policies related to public and non-motorized transport infrastructure. In addition, they must prioritize the integration of modes with effective prices and control the use of cars.
Wen et al. (2015Wen, L., Cao, Y., & Weng, J. (2015). System dynamics method for scenario simulation analysis of urban traffic CO2 emissions in Baoding. Journal of Information and Computational Science, 12(9), 3431-3443. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.12733/jics20106019 http://dx.doi.org/ 10.12733/jics20106019... )	Low-carbon policies	M	ECO and ENV	13 years	Increasing the utilization of Liquefied Natural Gas vehicle (LNG) considerably reduces pollutant emissions. Vehicle quantity control helps improve the sustainability of the transportation system.
Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Ercan et al. (2016)	Public transportation policies; Alternative fuel options (public and private transport)	M	ECO, ENV, and TC	60 years	The public policies must be supported by measures that are more aggressive. The prioritization of public transport and the improvements in the energy consumption of cars has the potential to reduce or even partially eliminate the current growth in CO₂ emissions.
Macmillan et al. (2016Macmillan, A., Roberts, A., Woodcock, J., Aldred, R., & Goodman, A. (2016). Trends in local newspaper reporting of London cyclist facilities 1992-2012: the role of the media in shaping the systems dynamics of cycling. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 86, 137-145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.10.016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2015.10.... )	Pro-cycling policies	NM and M	SOC	20 years	The model helps identify effective policy levers to achieve sustained growth in cycling.
Alonso et al. (2017Alonso, A., Monzón, A., & Wang, Y. (2017). Modeling land use and transport policies to measure their contribution to urban challenges: The case of Madrid. Sustainability, 9(378), 1-28, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su9030378 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su9030378... )	Cordon toll accompanied by public transport improvements; Teleworking; and Re-densification	M	ECO, ENV, LU, SOC, and TC	19 years	The three policies increase the efficiency of the system. However, teleworking is the most effective measure. Analyzing only energy consumption and pollution, re-densification showed better results.
Menezes et al. (2017Menezes, E., Maia, A. G., & de Carvalho, C. S. (2017). Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 114, 226-241. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.201... )	Low-carbon policies	M	ENV	30 years	Policies that promote the use of biofuels have the greatest potential to reduce pollutant emissions. The prioritization of public transport also stands out in reducing emissions.
Procter et al. (2017Procter, A., Bassi, A., Kolling, J., Cox, L., Flanders, N., Tanners, N., & Araujo, R. (2017). The effectiveness of Light Rail transit in achieving regional CO2 emissions targets is linked to building energy use: insights from system dynamics modeling. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 19(5). 1459-1474. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-017-1343-z http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10098-017-134... )	Implementation of the Light Rail Transit (LRT)	M	ECO, ENV, LU, and TC	40 years	The implementation of the LRT will reduce emissions. Government targets on energy consumption will not be met without implementation.
Shen et al. (2018Shen, L., Du, L., Yang, X., Du, X., Wang, J., & Hao, J. (2018). Sustainable strategies for transportation development in emerging cities in China: A simulation approach. Sustainability, 10(844), 1-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030844 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10030844... )	Strengthening urban road construction; Strengthening the public transport system; Limiting private cars	M	ECO and TC	10 years	The three policies are effective, but the authors emphasize the importance of implementing them simultaneously.
Batur et al. (2019Batur, I., Islam, S. B., & Koc, M. (2019). Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul. Journal of Cleaner Production, 219, 319-410. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.064 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019... )	Supply management measures; Travel demand management (TDM) policies	M	ECO, ENV, and LU	10 years	Travel demand management based scenarios outperform supply management measures based scenarios.
Fontoura et al. (2019aFontoura, W. B., Chaves, G. L. D., & Ribeiro, G. M. (2019a). The Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy: The impact in São Paulo transport system using system dynamics. Transport Policy, 73, 51-61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.09.014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018... )	Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy (BUMP)	M	ECO, ENV, and TC	30 years	The BUMP implementation improves the share of public transit and reduces the pollutant emissions and traffic congestion. Besides that, the results show the importance of rideshare.
Fontoura et al. (2019bFontoura, W. B., Ribeiro, G. M., Chaves, G. L. D. (2019b). A framework for evaluating dynamic impacts of the Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy for transportation socioeconomic systems: A case study in Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Simulation, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2019.1701392 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2019.... )	Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy (BUMP)	NM and M	ECO, ENV, and TC	32 years	The BUMP implementation reduces the negative externalities and, consequently, increases the efficiency of the urban transport system.
Papageorgiou and Demetriou (2019Papageorgiou, G., & Demetriou, G. (2019). Investigating learning and diffusion strategies for sustainable mobility. Smart and Sustainable Built Environment. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/SASBE-02-2019-0020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/SASBE-02-2019-... )	Public awareness of the sustainable habits	NM	SOC	10 years	Social learning and motivation to change behaviors are effective in promoting sustainable active mobility. The introduction of Information and Communication Technology accelerates the shaping and diffusion of a walking mindset.
Hu et al. (2020Hu, W., Dong, J., Hwang, B., Ren, R., Chen, Y., & Chen, Z. (2020). Using system dynamics to analyze the development of urban freight transportation system based on rail transit: A case study of Beijing. Sustainable Cities and Society, 53, 1-13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101923 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101... )	Urban passenger rail transit network (URFT) development	M	EC, ENV, and TC	28 years	URFT schemes with higher funding and capacity reduces traffic congestion, pollutant emissions and the number of accidents.
Authors	Policies	Mode of Transport*	Sub-models**	Simulation Time	Main Results
Keith et al. (2020Keith, D. R., Struben, J. J. R., & Naumov, S. (2020). The diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles: A generalized model and future research agenda. Journal of Simulation. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2019.1708219 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2019.... )	Alternative fuel vehicles; Hybrid-electric vehicles; and Battery electric vehicles	M	ENV	30 years	In order to obtain a low carbon transportation sector, it is necessary to integrate long-term policies, considering the different vehicles fuels, as well as vehicle platforms and their interactions.
Luna et al. (2020Luna, T. F., Uriona-Maldonado, M., Silva, M. E., & Vaz, C. R. (2020). The influence of e-carsharing schemes on electric vehicle option and carbon emissions: An emerging economy study. Transportation Research Part D, 70, 1-14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102226 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102... )	E-carsharing growth policy; and Retirement policy for conventional vehicles	M	ECO and ENV	40 years	E-carsharing reduces emissions and increases awareness of electric vehicles. The combination of the two policies presents the best results for reducing emissions and increasing electric vehicle adoption.

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[1] Editor:

Fábio Duarte