Water consumption and urban growth: spatial analysis and possible relationships

Abstract

Water management is a challenge for urban planning, especially in the Brazilian semi-arid region. This study aims to investigate the relationship between water consumption and the spatial and temporal dynamics of the built environment in small municipalities in the state of Paraíba. The analysis is based on observing water consumption trends and urban growth to enable future scenarios of water demand and city expansion. Historical series, remote sensing and citizen science data are used to analyse trends; parametric and non-parametric statistical methods are also used, besides the Landscape Expansion Index (LEI), for pattern analysis and a statistical model to support future scenarios. The results reveal cities' peculiarities and limitations of the chosen indicators. In addition, the results show that in the last major water crisis in the region, the search for emergency and one-off supply solutions made it difficult to establish direct relationships between the urbanised area and the water volume consumption, given that the volumes reported in official databases do not portray the reality captured by citizen science data in some of the cities.

Keywords:
Citizen science; Landscape expansion index; Small towns; Urban expansion; Water demand