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Organizational analysis of touristic destinations based on the concepts of change of uncertainty and on the Chaos Theory: study of the examples of Gramado and Canela, in the Serra Gaúcha

The theories of change and chaos can give a large vision of the relations, aspects and implications of tourism, considering environmental and market uncertainties and instabilities. The majorities of the models of analysis, planning and management of Tourism are still limited, due to their linear and one dimensional character. The objective of the chaos theory is to offer explanations about the phenomenons, not to make predictions, because it is impossible to predict the future at long term. The management strategies create new sources of uncertainty, because the reality can not be completely represented by models. To be award of these facts means, however, considering the range of possibilities and opportunities of change and chaos in the management of tourism development. Based on these ideas, this article analyses the experiences of Gramado and Canela, two of the main tourist cities of Brazil, situated in the Highland Region of Rio Grande do Sul State.


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