Increase in the burden of dengue in Brazil and federated units, 2000 and 2015: analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

ABSTRACT:

Objective:  To describe the main metrics on dengue generated by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015, for Brazil and its 27 federated units, in the years 2000 and 2015.

Methods:  The metrics described were: incidence and mortality rates by dengue, standardized by age, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) (in absolute frequency and age-standardized rates). The estimated metrics were presented with uncertainty intervals (UI 95%) for the years 2000 and 2015, accompanied by the relative percentages of changes.

Results:  The number of cases increased 232.7% and the number of deaths increased 639.0% between 2000 and 2015 in the country. The incidence rate varied 184.3% and the mortality rate was low, but with an increase of 500.0% in the period evaluated. The YLL, YLD, and DALY rates increased 420.0, 187.2, and 266.1%, respectively. In 2015, DALY was similar among women and men (21.9/100,000). The DALY increased more than double in all the Brazilian federated units.

Conclusion:  The marked increase in dengue over the years is associated with the introduction and/or circulation of one or more serotypes of the transmitter virus and an increasing proportion of patients affected by the severe form of the disease. Despite the low mortality rate of the disease in comparison between the years of study, the disease contributes to the loss of healthy years of life in Brazil as it affects a large number of people, from all age groups, causing some degree of disability during the infection and deaths, especially, in children.

Keywords: Dengue; Incidence; Mortality; Population estimates; Brazil