Temporal analysis of mortality from preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life, 2000-2021 ^*

Objective:

to analyze the temporal pattern and estimate mortality rates in the first 24 hours of life and from preventable causes in the state of Pernambuco from 2000 to 2021.

Method:

an ecological study, using the quarter as the unit of analysis. The data source was made up of the Mortality Information System and the Live Birth Information System. The time series modeling was conducted according to the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model.

Results:

14,462 deaths were recorded in the first 24 hours of life, 11,110 (76.8%) of which being preventable. It is observed from the forecasts that the mortality rate in the first 24 hours of life ranged from 3.3 to 2.4 per 1,000 live births, and the mortality rate from preventable causes ranged from 2.3 to 1.8 per 1,000 live births.

Conclusion:

the prediction suggested progress in reducing mortality in the first 24 hours of life in the state and from preventable causes. The ARIMA models presented satisfactory estimates for mortality rates and preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life.

Descriptors:
Cause of Death; Early Neonatal Mortality; Neonatal Nursing; Epidemiological Studies; Forecasting; Public Health

Highlights:

(1) ARIMA is a modeling that is applicable to mortality in the first 24 hours of life.

(2) The predictions made show a decrease during the period from 2022 to 2026.

(3) Subsidy for nursing in care practices and reducing premature deaths.